Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Carlos Alcaraz heads to Madrid with a 9-1 record on clay courts in 2025.

It is no secret that Carlos Alcaraz is a proficient clay-court player, having won nine titles on the surface. The Spaniard’s six wins on hard courts are a close second. The 21-year-old is seeded second and finds himself in a tug-of-war for the World No. 2 position with Alexander Zverev. He was a finalist at the recently concluded Barcelona Open and is close on the German’s heels, with the No. 2 seed only 35 points adrift of Zverev. 

Alcaraz has a 15-2 record at the Manzanares Park Tennis Center, with his two title runs in 2022 and 2023 contributing to his stellar record at the venue.

The Spaniard looks to be fitting into Rafael Nadal‘s oversized shoes as the new face of Spanish tennis. His status as Spain’s No. 1 tennis player was evident by his first victories in Rotterdam and Monte-Carlo this season.

The Murcian will now look to win his seventh ATP 1000 and third Madrid Open title as the 2025 edition gets underway. Should Alcaraz emerge victorious for a third time, he will join Nadal as the only other Spaniard to have won a minimum of three titles at home. He would also become the first player to win three in a row in Madrid.

While not straightforward, Alcaraz’s draw should see him make the last eight with minimum fuss. Let’s take a look at his potential path to the Madrid Open 2025 final.

Round 2 – Yoshihito Nishioka / Zizou Bergs

Either Nishioka or Bergs will be the first hurdle Alcaraz will have to cross at the Madrid Open. Both Nishioka and Bergs have only modest performances on clay, and neither player has made noteworthy runs at the clay court event. 

Bergs, who reached a career-high ranking of 50 in March, could pose a challenge to the Spaniard. The 25-year-old Belgian defeated World No. 8 Andrey Rublev in Miami for his first top-ten win. 

Alcaraz’s experience will see him through his opening round regardless of the opponent on the opposite side of the net. 

Round 3 – Jiri Lehecka / Cameron Norrie 

While Alcaraz would do well to be wary of Lehecka, Norrie is unlikely to pose any problems for the Spaniard. Alcaraz and Lehecka are locked at 1-1 in their head-to-head, making any potential meeting a tie-breaker to see who gets ahead. The Spaniard maintains a 4-2 lead over the 29-year-old Englishman Cameron Norrie.  

Jiri Lehecka defeated Alcaraz at Doha in February 2025 en route to his semi-final run two years after their first meeting in 2023 at Queen’s Club. Norrie’s two quarter-final appearances at Hong Kong and Delray Beach in 2025 suggest a hint of a return to form. Norrie’s triumph over Alcaraz at their last meeting in Rio de Janeiro two years ago offers another glimmer of hope for the Briton.  

Round 4 – Grigor Dimitrov / Tomas Machac

Alcaraz has an edge should he cross paths with Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round. The emphatic 6-1, 6-1 victory over the Bulgarian at Indian Wells in March this year gave Alcaraz a 4-2 lead in their head-to-head. Dimitrov is a tough competitor, but his recent retirements – three this season, and a double bagel loss to Alex de Minaur in Monte-Carlo are a cause for concern.  

Tomas Machac, like Dimitrov, is known to be a fighter. The Czech made Alcaraz sweat it out in the first set tie-break in the Davis Cup tie against Spain before retiring. A month later, Machac defeated Alcaraz in the quarter-finals of the ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai in their first full match.

The Czech World No. 20 recorded his maiden tour-level singles title at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco to make his top 20 debut.

Quarter-final – Alex de Minaur / Lorenzo Musetti / Stefanos Tsitsipas

Alex De Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas have found it difficult each time they have faced Alcaraz. The Aussie and the Greek have not quite measured up to Alcaraz. The Spaniard leads De Minaur 4-0 and Tsitsipas 6-0.

Tsitispas came close to winning at the 2021 US Open throughout a marathon five-setter before Alcaraz prevailed 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(2), 0-6, 7-6(5).

Likewise, De Minaur stretched Alcaraz to three sets in the semi-finals of the 2022 Barcelona Open. This time the match was decided 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 6-4. The other three wins came easily for the Spaniard.

Lorenzo Musetti came close to a second career win over Alcaraz at the 2025 Monte-Carlo finals. Instead, he let go of a one-set lead to lose 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 and fall to 4-1 in their head-to-head.

Semi-final – Novak Djokovic / Jack Draper

Alcaraz is projected to meet either Novak Djokovic or Jack Draper in the last four. While Alcaraz last crossed paths with Djokovic at the 2025 Australian Open, the meeting with Draper took place at the Indian Wells ATP 1000 semi-finals.

Djokovic and Draper emerged as winners in their recent meetings against Alcaraz. The Serb won 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 and led 5-3 in their head-to-head. The Briton defeated Alcaraz 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 and narrowed the gap to 3-2. 

Final – Alexander Zverev / Holger Rune / Andrey Rublev

Zverev, Rune, and Rublev – three men who can take the fight to Alcaraz in the finals. Alexander Zverev was the 2019 winner in Madrid, and Andrey Rublev is the defending champion who overcame the Spaniard in the last eight en route to the 2024 title.

Holger Rune proved he was up to the task when he ended Alcaraz’s bid for a third Barcelona Open title when the Scandinavian prevailed in their final, 7-6(6), 6-2.

The head-to-head between Alcaraz and Zverev (5-6), Alcaraz and Rune (2-2), and finally Alcaraz and Rublev (2-1) suggest the World No. 3 will have to dig deep for a win should any of the three players advance to the final.

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