Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Miami Open 2025 final

Carlos Alcaraz, the 2022 champion, eyes comeback in Miami.

This week, the tennis action on the men’s tour shifts from the Indian Wells Open to the sun and sand of Miami. Seasoned veterans and rising stars will battle it out to claim the trophy at the ATP 1000 event in Florida.

Carlos Alcaraz will look for redemption at the Miami Open 2025 after he fell short of a rare three-peat in Indian Wells. Alcaraz reached the title round without dropping a set during a phenomenal fortnight in California without dropping a set. However, he lost in a three-set final against Jack Draper, missing out on a chance to win his third consecutive Indian Wells trophy.

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The 2022 Miami Open champion is 13-3 at the venue. Alcaraz will look to return to his winning ways in the Sunshine State and reach his first Miami Open final since his title run three years ago. The World No. 3 lost to Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals in 2023 and to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-finals in 2024.  

His likely path to the final will see him renew rivalries with Grigor Dimitrov, Casper Ruud, and Daniil Medvedev and continue where he left off with Britain’s Jack Draper.

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Round 2: David Goffin

Alcaraz will look to make the most of a favourable draw at the Miami Open 2025 when he opens against David Goffin. Alcaraz and Goffin are locked at 1-1 in their head-to-head but have not faced each other since 2022.

The Spaniard drew first blood in Adelaide in 2021 with a straight-set win. Goffin responded by defeating the Spaniard in straight sets at Astana the following year. The 34-year-old Belgian last won a tour-level title in Marrakech in 2022. Alcaraz has become a four-time Grand Slam champion since their last meeting. 

Round 3: Brandon Nakashima

Another easy outing for Alcaraz is on the cards in the potential meeting against American Brandon Nakashima. The 21-year-old Spaniard has defeated Nakashima in both of their previous meetings. Their rivalry goes back to their days on the Challenger Tour.  

Alcaraz, the ATP No. 3, and Nakashima last played at the 2021 edition of the Next Gen ATP Finals. The Spaniard won in three sets in the round-robin stage. Nakashima ranked 32nd in the world, has yet to progress beyond the second round in Miami.

Round 4: Grigor Dimitrov/Karen Khachanov

The prospect of facing potential quarter-final rivals for Alcaraz – Grigor Dimitrov and Karen Khachanov should be little cause for worry for the World No. 3. Except that Dimitrov ended Alcaraz’s bid for a semi-final spot last season, handing the Spaniard a straight-set defeat for the first time. 

In another possible scenario, Alcaraz would face Karen Khachanov in the round of 16. The third seed enjoys a 4-0 head-to-head lead over the Russian. Khachanov’s best result in Miami was reaching the 2023 semi-finals.  

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Quarter-finals: Casper Ruud/Tommy Paul/Francisco Cerundolo

Alcaraz’s possible quarter-final rivals by seeding are Ruud, Paul, or Baez – in that order. Among the three, only Ruud has recorded a win against the Spaniard recently. 

The Norwegian defeated Alcaraz in the round-robin stage of the 2024 ATP Finals. Tommy Paul last won a match against the Spaniard at the ATP Masters 1000 Canada quarter-final in 2023. Cerundolo is yet to open his account against Alcaraz, with the most recent loss taking place in the last eight at the 2025 edition of Indian Wells. 

Despite the losses, Alcaraz leads the trio in their head-to-head – a 4-1 lead over Casper Ruud, 4-2 against Paul, and a 3-0 whitewash over Cerundolo.

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Semi-finals: Stefanos Tsitsipas/Novak Djokovic/Daniil Medvedev

Among the three possible rivals in the last four, only Novak Djokovic has a winning head-to-head at 5-3 against Alcaraz. The Serh has recorded back-to-back wins against Alcaraz. Djokovic, a six-time Miami Open champion, won Gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics and recently in the last eight at the 2025 Australian Open by defeating the Spaniard. 

Daniil Medvedev has two wins against six losses, while Stefanos Tsitsipas trails 6-0 in his head-to-head against the third seed. Medvedev last recorded a win against Alcaraz at the 2023 US Open in the semi-final round. Tsitsipas came close to taking a set-off Alcaraz at last year’s French Open for the first time since 2022. Unfortunately for the Greek, he fell short on yet another occasion in the quarter-final at Roland Garros.

Final: Alexander Zverev/Taylor Fritz/Jack Draper

The final will likely be the first real test for Alcaraz in Miami. Top seed Zverev, World No. 4 Taylor Fritz, and the Spaniard’s Indian Wells conqueror, Jack Draper, are all potential rivals for the trophy. 

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Alexander Zverev will be eager to convert last season’s semifinal in Miami into a title. The German came close to winning his first Grand Slam in Melbourne this year and leads Alcaraz 6-5 in their head-to-head. Fritz will have to take advantage of his home conditions to register his first win against Alcaraz, who currently leads their head-to-head record 2-0. 

Draper will be riding the momentum of his maiden ATP 1000 victory and his second over Alcaraz in Indian Wells. The Englishman also overcame the World No. 3 in London last year. Following his win over Alcaraz the past week, Draper narrowed the head-to-head lead to 3-2.

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