Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Paris Masters 2026 final

Carlos Alcaraz holds a modest 5-5 record in Paris Masters

Carlos Alcaraz arrives at Paris Masters 2026 as the second seed and World No. 3, fresh from beating Alex De Minaur in straight sets in the Vienna final.

The Spaniard is currently on a five-match winning streak, having won his fourth title of the season and is now looking to do what he has never managed to at the Paris Masters.

Alcaraz has never gone beyond the quarter-finals in Paris, with his best run coming in 2022, where he was forced to retire with an abdominal injury against Holger Rune in the last eight, and last year he lost his opener to Cameron Norrie.

A title would make him the third player after Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to win Masters 1000 titles in five straight years, and Paris is his last chance this season. On that note, let’s take a look at his potential path to the Paris Masters 2026 final.

Carlos Alcaraz’s potential route to Paris Masters 2026 Final

Round 1 – Bye

As a top-eight seed, Alcaraz skips the first round, which gives him a rest after a Sunday final in Vienna.

Round 2 – Alex Michelsen

Alcaraz begins his campaign against the winner of Alex Michelsen and Jiri Lehecka. The two are level at 1-1 in their head-to-head. Lehecka has had a draining week, having lost the Basel Open final to Valentin Vacherot in three sets, so he starts Paris on a very short turnaround.

The 23-year-old beat both Lehecka and Michelsen on his path to triumph in Tokyo a few months back, and should be able to comfortably pass this challenge.

Round 3 – Ugo Humbert/Brandon Nakashima/Matteo Berrettini

Ugo Humbert has already won his opener, beating Botic van de Zandschulp in three sets. Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Berrettini play each other with the winner facing Humbert. Humbert is the toughest rival of the three for the Spaniard, because he beat him here in the third round in 2024.

Quarter-final – Arthur Fils/Taylor Fritz

Arthur Fils or Taylor Fritz could await the Spaniard in the final eight. Fils opens against qualifier Tomas Machac, who hit 15 aces and held all ten of his service games to beat Kyrian Jacquet. The Frenchman retired from his Basel quarter-final due to an injury but said he is fine to play in Paris.

Fritz, who emerged victorious over qualifier Benjamin Bonzi in his first round, is also in the hunt for a Turin place. The American contested Alcaraz at the 2026 Laver Cup, but fell short in a thrilling battle. The pair have always produced epic clashes, making this an exciting round to watch.

Semi-final – Daniil Medvedev/Rafael Jodar

Daniil Medvedev is the projected semi-final opponent, who opens against Ignacio Buse and has already qualified for Turin. Alcaraz beat him in the Vienna semi-finals, but the Russian had got the better of him earlier this year in Indian Wells.

The danger in this section is Rafael Jodar, who made his top-10 debut with a straight-sets win over Alejandro Tabilo and now plays Casper Ruud in the next round.

Jodar is fighting for the last Turin place, so he will look to give everything he has. Karen Khachanov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are also in this section. Fifth seed Flavio Cobolli has withdrawn, thereby weakening the field.

Final – Alexander Zverev/Novak Djokovic/Alex de Minaur/Ben Shelton/Frances Tiafoe

The other half of the draw is more crowded, full of players vying for a place in the ATP Finals. Alexander Zverev is the favourite and arrives as the new World No. 1. The Spaniard called him the best player of the year in Vienna, but de Minaur had stunned him in the Vienna semi-finals, so he is clearly not unbeatable.

Novak Djokovic is the biggest name in the section. He won the Beijing title earlier this month, but lost his opening matches in Shanghai and Basel. However, the Serbian got off to a winning start against Basel champ Valentin Vacherot in three sets.

De Minaur lost to Alcaraz in the Vienna final, extending his losing streak against the Spaniard to 7-0. Ben Shelton, the Canada Masters champion and US Open finalist, and Frances Tiafoe, who lost his Vienna opener to Musetti, are the other possible rivals.

Alcaraz has beaten most of this field in recent weeks. He and Djokovic are level at 5-5 in the head-to-head, and a clash between these two will be the most highly anticipated match of the week. For the 7-time Grand Slam champion, improving his poor record in Paris will be the biggest objective this week.

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