Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Qatar Open 2026 final

Alcaraz will be back in action after becoming the youngest career slam champion.

Carlos Alcaraz will feature in his second Qatar Open event, after losing the quarter-finals to Jiri Lehecka last year. The Spaniard added the Australian Open to his trophy cabinet, and shattered numerous records on his path to glory.

After a memorable Australian swing, he shifts focus to remainder of this hard-court swing. As he looks to now overcome the Middle-East swing, he has already been blessed with a favourable draw.

On that note, let’s take a look at his potential path to the Qatar Open 2026 final.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (@carlitosalcarazz)

Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path at ATP Qatar Open 2026

Round of 32: Arthur Rinderknech

Top seed Carlos Alcaraz begins his campaign against French No. 1 Arthur Rinderknech in the opening round. This marks their fifth career meeting, with Alcaraz holding a perfect 4-0 head-to-head record, including a straight-sets win in the US Open round of 16 last year.

Rinderknech brings power and aggression, but Alcaraz’s superior all-court game and recent form make him a heavy favorite to advance comfortably.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner’s projected path to ATP Qatar Open 2026 final

Round of 16: Valentin Royer

In the second round, Alcaraz is projected to face Valentin Royer or a qualifier emerging from the early rounds. This should be a straightforward matchup for the Spaniard, allowing him to conserve energy and fine-tune his game on the Doha hard courts. Expect Alcaraz to dominate and move into the quarterfinals with ease.

Quarter-final: Karen Khachanov / Jaume Munar / Marton Fucsovics

The quarter-final could see Alcaraz up against seventh seed Karen Khachanov, who won the Qatar Open back in 2024. Others in contention include fellow Spaniard Jaume Munar or Marton Fucsovics.

Khachanov’s big serve and baseline power could pose a challenge, but Alcaraz’s flawless 5-0 h2h indicates he is a clear favourite. Munar has been in top form and will not go down without a fight, but neither of these players will be too big a threat for the reigning Australian Open champion.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz joins Rafael Nadal in this incredible record against Novak Djokovic

Semi-final: Daniil Medvedev / Andrey Rublev

A high-profile semi-final looms, with fourth seed Daniil Medvedev, a 2023 Doha champion as the projected opponent if seeds hold. Medvedev’s defensive mastery and counterpunching traits have gone missing over the past two years, and his ability to produce clutch moments under pressure seem to have diminished.

Defending champion Andrey Rublev could make Alcaraz work hard but expect the Spaniard to prevail eventually.

Final: Jannik Sinner / Alexander Bublik / Jiri Lehecka

The dream final many fans crave: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner. The pair have produced epic battles, with Alcaraz currently leading their rivalry by 10-6. The second seeded Italian has a tougher path but could arrive motivated after his Australian Open semi-final run.

Alexander Bublik (third seed), known for his unorthodox style and big serve, or Jiri Lehecka (eighth seed) could upset the order. If Lehecka reaches the final, the Spaniard will have his golden chance to avenge the defeat from last year.

Their first meeting in 2026 looms, and with both players dominating recent hard-court events, this promises to be a blockbuster clash. Any deviation from an Alcaraz-Sinner final would surprise, given their current form and the reduced competition without Novak Djokovic.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram