Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: ATP Finals 2025
Auger-Aliassime is making his ATP Finals semi-final debut.
The World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz will now take on the Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime on November 15, Saturday in the ATP Finals 2025 semi-finals. Check the Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime match prediction below.
Alcaraz dashed the hopes of Lorenzo Musetti and the local fans, who would have been hoping to see two Italians in the semi-finals of the season finale.
The Spaniard defeated Musetti 6-4, 6-1 to secure his 70th tour-level win of the season and finish the year as ATP year-end No. 1 for the second time.
The top seed finished on top of the Jimmy Connors Group at a perfect 3-0 and helped Australian Alex de Minaur reach the last four. Alcaraz remains on track for the second indoor title of his career after Rotterdam earlier this year.
It took just 83 minutes for Alcaraz to register his seventh straight win over Musetti. The Italian dropped serve thrice in his round robin loss to Alcaraz, even as winners were in short supply for the World No. 9. Musetti could put together just 8 winners as he finished last in the Jimmy Connors Group.
Felix Auger-Aliassime defeated two-time champion Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6(4), to finish second in the Bjorn Borg Group and advance to his first semi-final in Turin.
The Canadian bounced back after losing to Jannik Sinner in his opening round-robin match to defeat Ben Shelton before dispatching Zverev, and will make his top-five debut in the revised ATP Rankings on Monday.
Auger-Aliassime will look to build on his impressive run at the 2025 ATP Finals when he takes on Alcaraz in the second semi-final on Sunday.
Auger-Aliassime has narrowed the head-to-head advantage to 6-4 against Zverev. By ousting the German, the No. 8 seed from Montreal has brought up his 50th win of the season.
The Canadian kept pace with the big-serving Zverev, firing 11 aces and 24 winners en route to his second straight victory over the 28-year-old German. Auger-Aliassime stayed the course for a fourth tour-level title in 2025, with the straight-set win over Zverev giving him his fifth top-ten win of the season.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Match Details
Tournament: ATP Finals 2025
Round: Semi-finals
Date: Sunday, November 16
Venue: Turin, Italy
Surface: Indoor Hard
Preview
Alcaraz sealed the year-end No. 1 position on Thursday after a straight-set win over Lorenzo Musetti and will arrive for his semi-final match with a day’s gap in between. The 2023 semi-finalist takes on Auger-Aliassime for the eighth time on tour and for the first time since the 2024 Paris Olympics.
While Auger-Aliassime opened an early lead, racing to 3-0 in their meetings since 2021, Alcaraz flipped the script since 2023 by winning four in a row. This includes a 6-1, 6-1 drubbing at the hands of the Spaniard at the 2024 Summer Games.
The last time the Canadian took the win was in 2022 in Basel, a straightforward 6-3, 6-3 victory. Auger-Aliassime survived a virtual quarter-final in his last remaining round-robin match to make his last-four debut in Turin.
Alcaraz will look to do one better than 2023, emphasising his all-court credentials and becoming the first Spaniard to reach the title round of the season finale since Rafael Nadal in 2013.
Auger-Aliassime will be shouldering Canadian hopes after emulating fellow Canadian Milos Raonic. The No. 9 seed is the second Canadian to reach the last four at the ATP Finals after Raonic in 2016.
Form
- Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-L-W
- Felix Auger-Aliassime: W-W-W-L-W
Head-to-head record
- Matches: 7
- Carlos Alcaraz: 4
- Felix Auger-Aliassime: 3
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz:
- Alcaraz has a 70-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
- Alcaraz has a 6-4 win-loss record in Turin.
- Alcaraz has won 77% of matches played on hard courts.
Felix Auger-Aliassime:
- Auger-Aliassime has a 51-22 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
- Auger-Aliassime has a 4-2 win-loss record in Turin.
- Auger-Aliassime has won 63% of matches played on hard courts.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Betting tips and odds
- Moneyline: Alcaraz -480, Auger-Aliassime +370
- Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 (-130), Auger-Aliassime +3.5 (+115)
- Total Sets: Over 22.5 (+100), Under 22.5 (-118)
- 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz -335, Auger-Aliassime +255
- 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-182), Under 9.5 (+143)
Match Prediction
Having won two indoor hard court titles in 2025, Felix Auger-Aliassime will head into his semi-final clash against Carlos Alcaraz in a buoyant mood. With a 15-3 record on the surface in the ongoing season, the Canadian has what it takes to be a threat to Alcaraz.
A place in the finals beckons Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime as they prepare to face off for the first time in over a year. The winner will break new ground as a first-time finalist at the prestigious event.
The latest episode of the Alcaraz-Auger-Aliassime rivalry will have the tone of a fair fight. The Canadian, with a game tailor-made for indoor hard courts, will not be willing to let the straight-set loss to the Spaniard in Paris last year slide.
The answer for the Canadian in controlling the game will hinge on him dictating the rallies while also using his biggest weapon, his serve, to good effect. But that alone may not be enough to stop a determined Alcaraz in his tracks.
Alcaraz’s ability to surprise his opponents with his extensive bag of tricks will likely see the top seed make his first championship round match in Turin.
Result: Alcaraz to win in three sets.
Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of the semi-final match between Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime at the ATP Finals 2025?
The round-robin match between Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime at the ATP Finals 2025 will be available to Indian viewers on the Sony Network. Viewers in the UK can tune in to Sky UK, while American audiences can watch the action unfold on Tennis Channel.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime?
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 4–3 from their seven previous meetings.
When and where is the Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime semifinal taking place?
The semifinal will be played on Sunday, November 16, in Turin, Italy, on indoor hard courts.
How has Carlos Alcaraz performed so far at the ATP Finals 2025?
Alcaraz finished the group stage with a perfect 3-0 record, secured year-end World No.1, and enters the semifinals after a dominant win over Musetti.
How did Felix Auger-Aliassime qualify for the semifinals?
Auger-Aliassime defeated Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev in the group stage to finish second in the Bjorn Borg Group, making his first ATP Finals semifinal.
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Meet Fazeel—a bibliophile and sci-fi aficionado who devours books and movies alike. His favorite form of exercise? Watching tennis from a perfectly positioned couch. Whether he's lost in a gripping novel or absorbed in a five-hour Grand Slam final, he's all in. Favorite quote: “You cannot be serious” – John McEnroe.
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