Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to ATP China Open 2024 final

Carlos Alcaraz could clash against Daniil Medvedev in semi-finals of China Open 2024.

Carlos Alcaraz began this week with good news as he qualified for the year-ending ATP Finals 2024, joining Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev as the third player to qualify. There are now five more spots up for grabs at the event. Alcaraz and Sinner will be next seen in action at the China Open 2024.

The young Spaniard, who became the youngest World No. 1 in 2022 won the Channel Slam this year by taking ownership of the French Open and Wimbledon titles. Alcaraz became the sixth man in the Open Era to win the Roland Garros-Wimbledon double in the same season. The rare accomplishment places him in the company of certified legends Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic.

Accompanying the milestones were a fair share of losses for Alcaraz – quarter-finals in Melbourne, Miami and Madrid followed by second round exits at Cincinnati and Flushing Meadows, after winning silver at the Paris Olympics. Alcaraz recovered smartly, contributing heavily to Team Europe’s Laver Cup win by pitching in eight points, as they reclaimed the title after two seasons as runners-up.

The World No. 3 made his debut in Beijing last season, where he reached the last four before losing to eventual champion Jannik Sinner. With his qualification for the ATP Finals set, the four-time Grand Slam champion will focus on the fight for year-ending World No. 1.

Also Read: ATP China Open 2024: Live streaming, TV channel, where and how to watch?

Let us now take a look at Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to the China Open 2024 final:

First Round: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Big-serving Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is to be Alcaraz’s opening round rival. It will be the first face-off between the 21-year-olds on the ATP Tour. The Spaniard has come through with three wins this season in comparison to Perricard, who won his maiden tour-level title in Lyon, France. As a wildcard entry, he overcame sixth seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry to complete a memorable win on home turf.

The tall French player made his top 50 debut at No. 44 on reaching the Round of 16 at Wimbledon this year. There will be an exchange of fiery groundstrokes on the court in Beijing.

Second Round: Miomir Kecmanovic / Tallon Griekspoor

Alcaraz will go into the match against potential second round opponents with a 2-0 lead against Kecmanovic and 3-0 against Griekspoor on the ATP Tour. Taking into account the Alcaraz-Griekspoor rivalry from the Challenger days, the lead extends to 4-1.

On the hunt for his second career title, Kecmanovic defeated three top 20 players this year – Tommy Paul (Melbourne), Casper Ruud (Rome) and Sebastian Baez (Eastbourne). Griekspoor dished out similar treatment against Hubert Hurkcacz in Rotterdam and Holger Rune in Madrid. The Dutchman also stretched Alexander Zverev to five sets at Roland-Garros during the third round this season.

Quarter-finals: Karen Khachanov / Francisco Cerundolo

Should Alcaraz run into either Khachanov or Cerundolo in Beijing, he should have little cause for worry. The Spaniard has a winning head-to-head lead against both men – Khachanov (3-0) and Cerundolo (1-0)

Cerundolo is likely to be the trickier of the two for Alcaraz to face. The Argentine has registered wins against Tommy Paul (Madrid, Roland-Garros), Alexander Zverev (Madrid) and finally Andrey Rublev and Lorenzo Musetti in Umag for his first win in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Russian has not been able to bring back his usual firepower on the court. He is yet to win a set against Alcaraz in their first three meetings.

Semi-finals: Daniil Medvedev / Alexander Bublik / Gael Monfils

The Spaniard is seeded to meet Medvedev or Bublik in the last four. While Alcaraz is 5-2 against Medvedev, an ATP-level meeting with Bublik is yet to materialize. Having lost the previous three encounters to Alcaraz, the odds favour the Spaniard ending up victorious against Medvedev. The World No. 3 should be wary of Medvedev pulling off an upset as he did in the quarter-finals against Sinner at SW19.

Alcaraz gets to start with a clean slate in any potential match-up against Bublik. The former ATP top 20 player is no pushover, as Andrey Rublev and Ben Shelton found out in Dubai and Madrid. Bublik won his second Montpellier title in 2024, despite being taken to three sets all through the event.

Running into Monfils could spell trouble for Alcaraz, particularly as the crafty veteran defeated the Spaniard for the first time in three meetings, that led to Alcaraz obliterating his racquet during their opening round match at the Cincinnati Masters.

Finals: Jannik Sinner / Andrey Rublev

Alcaraz leads Sinner 3-2 in their last five meetings and surprisingly, two of those three wins have come on hard courts – the Italian’s preferred surface. The Spaniard, however, is in the middle of a lean patch as far as titles are concerned. Alcaraz hasn’t reached a final since winning Wimbledon, suffering early exits at Cincinnati and New York.

As a pattern, Alcaraz and Sinner have taken turns defeating the other in sets of two each time, the Spaniard having won their previous two meetings this season.

A summit clash with Rublev is the other possibility that Alcaraz may have to face. The fourth seed defeated the 21-year-old Alcaraz in the 2024 Madrid Masters quarter-final to even their rivalry at 1-1. The Russian went on to win in Spain for his second ATP Masters 1000 title.

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