Novak Djokovic's projected path to Indian Wells Open 2025 final

A ninth Djokovic vs Alcaraz clash is potentially on the cards at Indian Wells Open 2025.

The Indian Wells Open 2025 men’s singles main draw was announced on March 4, allowing tennis stars to learn who they are going to come up against during the course of the ATP-1000 event. After a poor 2024 outing at the desert where he lost in the second round, Novak Djokovic is set to compete despite injury concerns.

Seeded sixth for the competition, the Serbian would be hoping to replicate his success at the venue where he is a five-time champion. However, the 37-year-old last triumphed here in 2016, and has been winless ever since.

Despite struggling with form and fitness, Djokovic will be aiming for a 100th career title and looking to surpass Roger Federer to become the most successful Indian Wells champion. Here let’s take a look at Djokovic’s potential opponents in each round till the final.

Novak Djokovic’s projected path to glory at Indian Wells Open 2025

Round 1: Bye

Round 2: Nick Kyrgios or Qualifier

Partners at the Brisbane International 2025, Djokovic and Kyrgios could face each other in the second round. Nick Kyrgios has played only two singles matches in 2025 so far and has lost both with his latest outing being at the Australian Open 2025.

[The Australian made headlines following his repeated attacks on Jannik Sinner surrounding the doping scandal. Given the Australian’s poor form and clash with injuries, it is unlikely that he will advance to the third round should he beat the qualifier in the first.

Also Read: List of records Novak Djokovic can break at Indian Wells Open 2025

Round 3: Francisco Cerundolo/Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is currently the man in form, having reached consecutive finals at the Delray Beach Open and Mexican Open. While he could challenge Novak Djokovic, the Serbian has historically had the upper hand over the Spaniard, leading 5-1 on head-to-head.

Francisco Cerundolo is seeded 25th but has been out of action for a while. The Argentine played the Serbian just once, at the 2024 French Open where Cerundolo lost in a five-set contest.

Round 4: Alex de Minaur/Hubert Hurkacz

A measure of Djokovic’s match fitness and form will be determined in his round of 16 encounter where he could take on either of Alex de Minaur or Hubert Hurkacz. The Australian began 2025 confidently before falling to top seed Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals of Australian Open. De Minaur has delivered consistently in big tournaments but has faltered against higher ranked players and will be looking to make amends.

Hubert Hurkacz, meanwhile, has suffered with constant injuries and has had a poor start to 2025 with a 6-6 record so far. Additionally, the Pole has not managed to get the better of Djokovic despite facing the Serbian seven times so far.

Also Read: Top 10 players to watch at Indian Wells Open 2025

Quarter-final: Carlos Alcaraz

Another chapter of Djokovic vs Alcaraz could be witnessed at the Indian Wells Open, with Carlos Alcaraz looking to complete a three-peat at Indian Wells. The Spaniard though, lost to the Serbian in their previous meeting at the Melbourne Park, thereby making this clash a must-watch battle.

Overcoming the defeat, Alcaraz won the ATP Rotterdam days later. While Djokovic played just a solitary match after the Australian Open where he faced a round-one exit in Qatar. Hence, this will be an extremely challenging task for the five-time Indian Wells Open winner, but a triumph could put him in the driver’s seat in his pursuit of yet another title.

Also Read: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head record

Semi-final: Taylor Fritz/Andrey Rublev

US Open 2024 finalist Taylor Fritz would hope the new playing conditions at the desert helps him find his lost form. Seeded third, the American has been struggling with injuries and withdrew from the Mexican Open, as a result. Qatar Open 2025 champion Andrey Rublev emerges as another contender.

Ben Shelton and Jack Draper are other potential semi-final opponents for the Serbian. The only player from the top 20 ranked players, to not trail Djokovic on head-to-head is Felix Auger Aliassime (tied at 1-1). Having won two titles in 2025, and finished as the finalist at the Dubai Championships, the Canadian could also contest the 24-time Grand Slam champion for a berth in the finals.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

Final: Alexander Zverev/Daniil Medvedev/Stefanos Tsitsipas

Top seed Alexander Zverev could potentially advance to his maiden Indian Wells Open final. If Djokovic gets past Alcaraz and the remaining tough opponents, Zverev could potentially stand between the Serbian and a 100th career title.

One must believe that Djokovic is at his absolute best if he manages to beat Alcaraz early in the competition. Moreover, the German has undergone a slump in form losing in Rio and Mexico, despite being the only top-20 seed competing at the event.

Despite an average year and a half, ruling out Daniil Medvedev is flirting with danger. Back-to-back finalist at the venue, the Russian will be desperate to avenge his past defeats in California, with a place in the top-10 ATP rankings at stake. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Dubai Open champion, is also a title contender after showcasing a stunning combination of backhand aggression and deftness during his campaign in Dubai.

Novak Djokovic has always dominated the duo, leading 10-5 against the Russian and 12-2 against the Greek.

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