Holger Rune vs Jack Draper prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Draper secured a first top-10 win of the season and advances to his maiden ATP 1000 final.

Jack Draper ended two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz’s quest for a third straight title at Indian Wells. The Spaniard headed for the exit after Draper prevailed 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 over the World No. #3.

The 23-year-old Briton powered through to his maiden ATP Masters 1000 final after snapping Alcaraz’s 16-match win streak at the event. A place in the ATP Top 10 for the first time is assured after the one-hour, 44-minute victory on Monday.

Alcaraz, who had momentum heading into the match, was aiming to secure a rare three-peat in Indian Wells. Only two men – Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have lifted the trophy three times in a row at Indian Wells.

Draper overcame some last-minute nerves even as he let Carlos Alcaraz back into the third set after racing to a 5-2 lead in the decider. The Englishman took the lead after four deuce exchanges in the 17-minute-long seventh game. Alcaraz broke back in the next game and held serve to make it 5-4 before the No. #13 seed held his serve to cross the finish line, securing the set and the match in the next game.

It was Draper’s second top-five victory this week, having defeated World No. #4 Taylor Fritz in the fourth round. The left-hander will face Holger Rune for the first time in the final of an ATP-level event.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Rune ended a seven-match losing streak in the semi-finals with a high-quality display against two-time runner-up Daniil Medvedev. Rune denied Medvedev a third straight Indian Wells final after the 7-5, 6-4 win over the Russian World No. #6.

The 21-year-old Dane will make a first tour-level final appearance since Brisbane in January last year. Rune converted three of four breakpoints and struck 20 winners for his one-hour, 39-minute win over the former World No. #1.

Match details

• Tournament: 2025 Indian Wells Open Men’s Singles
• Round: Finals
• Date: March 16
• Time: 2:30 AM IST (Tentative)
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
• Surface: Hard

Preview

At stake in the Rune-Draper face-off is the 2025 Indian Wells trophy. The duo are first-time finalists in Indian Wells, and the winner will walk away with the trophy for the first time. While Draper is in search of his first Masters title, Rune is in search of his second.

The title round between the two finalists – World No. #13 Rune and World No. #14 Draper is only the third Indian Wells final between two players outside the ATP Top 10.

Rune has been quietly impressive in his run to the final, having beaten two Top 10 seeds, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipasin straight sets. Draper stood firmly in the spotlight when he beat two home favourites, Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, back-to-back before sending Alcaraz to a premature exit in a topsy-turvy match.

Rune and Draper’s previous meeting was at the 2024 Cincinnati Open quarter-finals, where the Dane prevailed in straight sets – 6-4, 6-2.

Form

• Jack Draper: W-W-W-W-W
• Holger Rune: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 1
• Holger Rune: 1
• Jack Draper: 0

Also Read: Top five youngest men’s singles champions at Indian Wells Open

Stats

Holger Rune

• Rune has an 11-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Rune has a 9-5 win-loss in Indian Wells
• Rune has won 62% of matches played on hard courts

Jack Draper

• Draper has a 12-2 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Draper has an 8-2 win-loss record in Indian Wells
• Draper has won 64% of matches played on hard courts

Holger Rune vs Jack Draper: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Rune +146, Draper -170
• Spread: Rune +2.5 (-112), Draper -2.5 (-115)
• Total sets: Over 22.5 (-112), Under 23.5 (-110)

Also Read: Top five title favourites in women’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

Match prediction

Rune and Draper are evenly matched on paper, with both players just outside the top ten. Draper is a vastly improved player since the duo last took each on in Cincinnati in 2024. The British southpaw is serving better and has the bigger forehand.

Both men are athletic, quick on court and capable of closing points at the net. A resurgent Rune overcame an in-form Tsitsipas and Tallon Griekspoor en route to the final. In his semi-final against Medvedev, Rune kept the Russian off-balance with his variation in pace, mixing powerful shots while approaching the net to keep the fifth-seed guessing.

Draper spent a clinical fortnight at Indian Wells, not dropping a set until he came face-to-face with Alcaraz in the last four. The British lefty shrugged off being bageled in the second set to defy the crowd and deny the Spanish star a chance to earn a hat trick of titles in the desert.

Rune heads in with a slight psychological advantage, with a Masters 1000 title under his belt. Draper has been an assured player all week, and playing the biggest final of his career will remain unfazed to take home the title. 

Result: Jack Draper to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Holger Rune vs Jack Draper, men’s singles final at Indian Wells Open 2025?

Indian fans can watch Holger Rune take on Jack Draper on the Sony Network and SonyLiv. Sky UK provides live coverage within the United Kingdom, while Tennis Channel takes over in the United States.

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