Jannik Sinner's projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

The World No. 1 is the reigning champion.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner returned to action for the first time since his title winning run at the Wimbledon 2025. He is defending his crown at the Cincinnati Open while using the event as a hard-court warm-up ahead of the US Open.

The Italian star has only played five tournaments so far in 2025 yet has dominated the ATP field by topping the rankings. Sinner recently ended his poor streak against Carlos Alcaraz, avenging his Roland Garros final defeat with his maiden title at SW19.

Let’s take a look at his potential route to glory at the Cincinnati Open 2025.

Jannik Sinner’s projected path at Cincinnati Open 2025

Round 1 – Bye

As the top seed and defending champion, Jannik Sinner received a bye in the first round and will begin his campaign directly in Round 2.

Round 2 – Beat Daniel Elahi Galan

Sinner faced the 27-year-old Colombian Daniel Elahi Galan in the second round in Ohio and showed his intent early on with a straight sets victory. The Italian dominated the match 6-1, 6-1 in just 59 minutes, committing only four unforced errors. This was also his fastest win of the season.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Round 3 – Beat Gabriel Diallo

Sinner, up against 30th seed Gabriel Diallo, delivered his class to win 6-2, 7-6(6) on P&G Center Court on Tuesday, August 12, keeping his Cincinnati Open title defence alive.

It marked the Italian’s 23rd successive win on hard courts which is a promising sign in the build-up to the US Open 2025. Diallo, who was recently beaten by World No. 4 Taylor Fritz in the Canadian Open round of 32 in front of his home crowd, was unable to halt Sinner’s momentum.

This was the first-ever meeting between the five-time Grand Slam champion and the Canadian rising star.

Round 4 – Beat Adrian Mannarino

In the round of 16, the world number 1 defeated 37-year-old Adrian Mannarino, winning in straight sets despite rain delays. Sinner took the first set after an early break. The second set was tighter, with Mannarino breaking back late, but Sinner won the tiebreak 7-4.

It was Sinner’s fourth win in four matches against the Frenchman who was coming on the back of a grand win over America’s Tommy Paul 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

Previously, Sinner had beaten Mannarino three times, including twice at ATP Masters 1000 events — Indian Wells in 2023 and the Canadian Open in 2022.

Quarter-final – Felix Auger-Aliassime

Jannik Sinner will next meet the Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals. Interestingly, Sinner has never beaten Felix, losing both of their previous encounters, including a fourth-round clash in Cincinnati in 2022.

Currently ranked 28th, Felix advanced after defeating France’s Benjamin Bonzi 6-4, 6-3 in the round of 16. The 24-year-old is enjoying a strong 2025 season, already clinching two titles — the Open Occitanie and the Adelaide International. This upcoming match promises thrills as Sinner seeks his first win against the in-form Canadian.

Also Read: Cincinnati Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, & live streaming details

Semi-final – Taylor Fritz / Holger Rune / Flavio Cobolli

Taylor Fritz is the favourite to reach the semi-finals, but fatigue could play a huge role in hindering the American’s performance. Having reached the final four in Canada, Fritz displayed an unusually underwhelming outing against Shelton.

He will have to not only improve his first-serve success rate but also back it up with quality returns to even steal a set off Sinner, who crushed him in the 2024 US Open final.

Holger Rune and Flavio Cobolli are two promising young talents who might spring a surprise, but hard-hitting Frances Tiafoe cannot be counted out either. Unless Sinner experiences a remarkable dip in form or level, he is expected to advance to the summit clash.

Final – Carlos Alcaraz / Alexander Zverev / Ben Shelton

Yet another Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz final looms, as the Spaniard looks to claim his maiden Cincinnati title after coming agonizingly close in 2023, when he lost the final to Novak Djokovic.

While Alcaraz had the upper hand over Sinner, the recent Wimbledon victory settled scores in many ways. Now back to the arena where the World No. 1 dominates everyone else, Alcaraz would certainly be the second favorite, leading to a potential blockbuster duel.

Any other opponent reaching the final in a draw where Alcaraz is a strong contender is unlikely, but the Spaniard has faltered on hard courts in the past.

This opens the field for Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton, who recently made the final four in Toronto. Registering back-to-back deep campaigns will be difficult, and Sinner is expected to clinch the trophy rather convincingly against either of them on his favorite surface.

Sinner boasts a flawless 10-0 record against Alex de Minaur, having met only once this year at the Australian Open, with the Italian winning in straight sets. Interestingly, out of their 10 meetings, Alex has managed to win just one set so far.

De Minaur’s poor history of defeats against higher-ranked opponents suggests this bout will not hamper Sinner’s bid to defend his crown.

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