Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Carlos Alcaraz is yet to win the Cincinnati Open title.

Carlos Alcaraz has already made clear his intentions of overtaking Jannik Sinner for the World No. 1 position. He has a good chance to do so, as he only has to save 60 points until the US Open concludes. The Spaniard kicked off his Cincinnati Open campaign with a victory over the Bosnian tennis star Damir Dzumhur on Sunday, August 10.

Alcaraz had suffered an early exit in Cincinnati 2024, in a controversial loss to veteran Gael Monfils, where he infamously smashed his racquet. Hoping for a better outing this year, Alcaraz showed his intent early outclassing the world number 56, in what was his first appearance since the Wimbledon 2025 final.

Let’s take a look at his potential route to glory at the Cincinnati Open 2025.

Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path in Cincinnati Open 2025

Round 1 – Bye

Round 2 – Beat Damir Dzumhur

Carlos Alcaraz began his journey in Cincinnati against 33-year-old Damir Dzumhur in the opening round. After cruising through the first set 6-1, Alcaraz faced a scare as he dropped the second set 2-6 to the Bosnian. However, the five-time Grand Slam champion bounced back and took the decider 6-3, sealing the victory and booking his place in the round of 32.

This wasn’t their first meeting— the two had faced off earlier at Roland Garros 2025, where Alcaraz also dropped a set but ultimately delivered showed his class on his way to lifting the trophy.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Round 3 – Hamad Medjedovic

Carlos Alcaraz outmanoeuvred Serbia’s Hamad Medjedovic 6-4, 6-4 in the third round. It was strong response from the second seed after a three-set scare against Damir Dzumhur in his opener.

Both young and 22-year-old pair were meeting for the first time. After splitting the first six games, Alcaraz broke in a grueling 13-minute game and held on to take the set. In the second, Medjedovic broke back for 3-3 but struggled in the Ohio heat, with two failed drop shots restoring Alcaraz’s lead.

With this, French Open champion closed it out for his 50th win of 2025. Medjedovic, ranked 72, is still seeking his first ATP title.

Round 4 – Luca Nardi

Alcaraz stormed into the quarter-finals with yet again an easy 6-1, 6-4 win over Italy’s Luca Nardi. The world No. 2 dominated early, winning 13 of the first 14 points and sealing the opening set in just 27 minutes despite a rain delay.

The world anked 98th Italian fought back in the second set to lead 4-2, but Alcaraz responded by winning four straight games. The turning point came at 4-4, when the Spaniard claimed an eight-deuce game after consecutive Nardi double faults, breaking serve and closing the match in 80 minutes. It marked Alcaraz’s 51st win of the 2025 season.

Also Read: Could Carlos Alcaraz reclaim World No. 1 ranking from Jannik Sinner at Cincinnati Open 2025?

Quarter-final – Andrey Rublev

Now, the Spaniard is set to face the Russian rival Andrey Rublev who has been in good form and even stretched the Spaniard during their Wimbledon clash.

The world number 11 Rublev is coming on the back of a comfortable 6-2, 6-3 win over Francisco Comesana of Argentina. But the Russian has not been able to register wins over top-ranked players, which indicates that it will be easier for Alcaraz to reach the semi-finals.

The Spaniard holds a 5-1 lead in their head-to-head, with their most recent meeting coming in the Wimbledon 2025 round of 16, where Alcaraz won 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4. At 27. Rublev will look to upset the second seed, but Alcaraz’s dominance in their past encounters makes him the clear favorite.

Semi-final – Alexander Zverev / Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton, with his big serves and dynamic play, will force a must-watch battle against Alcaraz. However, whenever the two of them faced each other before, Ben was unsuccessful in troubling him. But he is now getting better with each passing match, and in such a situation, he can overpower Alcaraz

However, his trailing 0-3 h2h offers little confidence. Alexander Zverev is unlikely to beat Alcaraz, given his tendency to go passive against the better players at the big stage. While one would hope he can implement the lessons learnt under Toni Nadal, the Spaniard is expected to triumph comfortably.

Final – Jannik Sinner / Taylor Fritz / Lorenzo Musetti / Holger Rune

Yet another Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz final looms, as the Italian aims to retain his crown. While Alcaraz had the wood over Sinner, the recent Wimbledon victory settled scores in many ways.

Now back to the arena where the World No. 1 dominates everyone else, Alcaraz would certainly be the second favorite leading to this potential blockbuster duel.

Taylor Fritz is the other hot contender, but given the amount of tennis he has played since Wimbledon, including a deep run in Washington and now Toronto, the American may run out of fuel.

Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune have both struggled in terms of form and performances over the last few weeks, and they are unlikely to lose to Sinner or cause any trouble for Alcaraz.

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