Novak Djokovic's projected path to Monte Carlo Masters 2025 final

Djokovic is still searching for his first title since 2023.

Novak Djokovic’s hunt for a historic career 100th title nearly came to life in Miami, but he fell short to 19-year-old sensation Jakub Mensik. The Serbian last won an ATP title at the US Open in 2023, and has struggled since, due to poor form and injury concerns. After a series of successive early exits, he displayed a strong performance at the Miami Open 2025, primarily relying on good serving.

In addition to his two titles in 2013 and 2015, the 24-time Grand Slam champion has had numerous deep runs at the Monte Carlo Masters. He was a finalist in 2009 and 2012, reached the semifinals in 2008, 2010, and 2014, and made it to the quarterfinals in both 2017 and 2019. Only five men have won three or more titles here, thereby presenting the Serbian icon a golden opportunity to shatter the record books yet again.

Novak Djokovic’s projected path to the Monte Carlo Masters 2025 final

Round 64: Bye

Round 32: Stan Wawrinka or Alejandro Tabilo

The second round could feature a familiar showdown, as old rivals might cross paths once again. Stan Wawrinka, long regarded as a formidable challenger to the ‘Big Three’ during his prime, consistently pushed the top players to their limits. However, the Swiss star is now past his peak and enters the ATP 1000 event following a string of disappointing performances.

Should he overcome Alejandro Tabilo in the opening round, Wawrinka will aim to turn back the clock in a potential clash with Novak Djokovic. That said, Tabilo could play spoiler if he manages to upset the veteran early.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to ATP Monte Carlo Masters 2025 final

Round of 16: Grigor Dimitrov

Djokovic is expected to face Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16, setting up a rematch of their previous encounter. While their head-to-head heavily favors Djokovic at 13-1—making it one of the most lopsided rivalries in tennis—Dimitrov will be aiming to deliver a stronger showing on clay. The Bulgarian is anticipated to challenge the World No. #1 and make him toil hard for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Quarter-final: Tomas Machac or Sebastian Baez

Tomas Machac has defeated Djokovic once, on clay. While the 37-year-old has triumphed in his other two clashes, Machac has shown potential. The Czech won the Mexican Open earlier, but concerns will be surrounding his fitness, after withdrawing from the round of 16 encounter in Miami.

Baez is one of the best players on clay currently, having won the Rio Open earlier this year, and advanced to the finals of the Chile Open. He enters Monte Carlo Masters on the back of a remarkable campaign in Bucharest. Both opponents could cause upsets, but one would back the Serbian to emerge victorious.

Also Read: Monte Carlo Masters 2025: Top five title favourites in men’s singles ft. Carlos Alcaraz

Semi-final: Alexander Zverev

A rematch of the 2025 Australian Open semi-final could be on the horizon. While Alexander Zverev advanced in that encounter after Djokovic retired following the first set, the German’s fortunes have since taken a dip. He has struggled for form and is yet to capture a title this season, despite the absence of World No. #1 Jannik Sinner.

As the clay court season kicks off, Zverev will be eager to reverse his fortunes—but facing a resurgent Djokovic could prove a formidable challenge.

Also Read: ATP Monte Carlo Masters 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Final: Carlos Alcaraz

Based on recent ATP trends, the chances of both Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz reaching the Monte Carlo Masters final appear slim. Both have been dealt challenging draws—Djokovic faces lingering questions over his fitness, while Alcaraz has struggled with consistency, particularly under pressure on serve.

Still, if the seedings hold, fans could be treated to a blockbuster clash, as the World No. #3 and No. #5 meet for the first time on clay since their unforgettable showdown at the Paris 2024 Olympics final.

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