Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to ATP Monte Carlo Masters 2025 final

Carlos Alcaraz last turned up to play the ATP 1000 event in 2022.

As Carlos Alcaraz approaches the clay court season, he will first travel to Monte Carlo, the first of three consecutive Masters events on red clay. Other than Madrid, World No. 3 is yet to experience significant success in Monte Carlo and Rome.

The Spanish tennis star has played only once each in Monte-Carlo (2022), where he lost in the second round, and Rome (2023), where a third-round loss resulted in his exit. However, the 21-year-old is a two-time winner at Madrid in 2022 and 2023. The last event of an ATP 1000 level or above won by Alcaraz was Wimbledon 2024. 

A debut win at the Rotterdam in early February means Alcaraz is on his way back to being a serious challenger in 2025. Though he could not defend his Indian Wells crown, he managed a semi-final run before losing to Jack Draper.

The third ATP Masters 1000 tournament of the season, taking place at the Monte-Carlo Country Club, kicks off the high-stakes European leg of the tour. With the ‘King of Clay’ and 11-time Monte-Carlo champion Rafael Nadal retired, the setting is ripe for Alcaraz to represent Spanish interests. 

To do that, a title round in Monte-Carlo is a must, something Alcaraz has never done before. On a positive note, he will be making a fresh start after being unable to compete due to an injury last season. Alcaraz has little to lose and will look to dispel all doubts ahead of his Roland Garros title defence next month. 

Here’s Carlos Alcaraz’s likely path to the final of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters 2025.

Round 2: Fabio Fognini / Francisco Cerundolo

Alcaraz will have a chance to get his eye in when he takes on either Fabio Fognini or Francisco Cerundolo to begin his campaign. While Alcaraz can breathe a sigh of relief when he takes on 37-year-old Italian Fognini, he will have to be wary of Cerundolo. The Argentine is 3-2 against top ten players this season and is 8-3 on clay courts in 2025. 

Alcaraz is playing his first clay court tournament of the season and is yet to win a match in Monte Carlo. Cerundolo has stretched Alcaraz in both their tour-level matches and has beaten the Spaniard on the Challenger tour. Yet, expect the Spaniard to head in with confidence as has a 2–0 winning record against both players.

Also Read: Top five men’s singles players with most titles won at ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Round 3: Matteo Arnaldi / Felix Auger-Aliassime 

Alcaraz survived a three-set second-round match against Matteo Arnaldi at Indian Wells last year. But not before Arnaldi took set off Alcaraz in the opening set-tie break before the Spaniard regrouped for the 6-7(5), 6-0 6-1 win. Alcaraz (2-2) trails Arnaldi (5-4) in tie-breaks this season.

Felix Auger-Aliassime could also pose a threat to Alcaraz in a potential third-round clash. The Canadian’s confidence has grown this season after winning two titles. Auger-Aliassime won back-to-back finals in Adelaide and Montpellier before making the title round in Dubai. If Alcaraz faces a deciding set, he could be in trouble as the Canadian has a healthy 10-4 record in deciders this season. 

Quarter-finals: Arthur Fils / Gael Monfils

The two Frenchmen – 20-year-old Arthur Fils and 38-year-old veteran Gael Monfils will back themselves in a possible last-four encounter against Alcaraz. 

Fils would like to build on his quarter-final appearances in Indian Wells and Miami. It will be the first time the two players are meeting on tour. While Alcaraz picked up four titles to just the two by Fils in 2024, the Frenchman did well to win ATP 500 titles in Hamburg and Tokyo. Fils went past the top seeds at both events to emerge the winner –  Alexander Zverev in Hamburg and Taylor Fritz in Tokyo. 

Monfils, the ageless wonder, and his athleticism can be a stern test for Alcaraz. Monfils proved he still had it in him to win titles when he became the oldest man to win a tour-level title. The 38-year-old lifted the trophy at the ASB Classic in Auckland earlier this year.

Also Read: Top five players who will miss ATP Monte Carlo Masters 2025

Semi-finals – Jack Draper / Ben Shelton

Jack Draper surprised everyone last season by defeating Alcaraz at the Queen’s Club. The Brit denied Alcaraz a chance at a second straight win at Queen’s Club shortly before the Spaniard won his second straight Wimbledon title. Draper handed Alcaraz a three-set defeat at Indian Wells in the semi-finals, denying the World No. 3 a shot at a title for the second time. Alcaraz was on track for an Indian Wells three-peat until he ran into Draper. 

The left-handed Draper, now well-rested after skipping the Miami Open, could be a threat once more should he run into Alcaraz in the last four at Monte-Carlo.

Ben Shelton is the other possible semi-final rival for Alcaraz. For the Spaniard, Shelton will be the easiest of the two challenges. Alcaraz leads Shelton 2-0 in their head-to-head. A match against Draper will be more evenly poised after the World No. 7 closed the gap to make it 3-2 in his head-to-head against Alcaraz.

Final – Alexander Zverev / Novak Djokovic / Stefanos Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas are the only two players participating in the 2025 edition who have won the tournament twice. Djokovic is a two-time winner in Monte-Carlo (2013, 2015), while Tsitsipas has won here three times in the last four years – 2021, 2022, and 2024. Zverev, too, is an accomplished clay court player, having claimed four Masters 1000 titles on the surface. Alexander Zverev is the defending champion in Rome.

Alcaraz is no slouch in clay and is the French Open defending champion. The World No. 3 has also won a title on clay every year since 2021. The online downside to the potential opponents in the title round is that Alcaraz has a winning head-to-head only against Tsitsipas (6-0). Zverev leads the Spaniard ace 5-3, while Djokovic is up 5-3 against Alcaraz.

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