Novak Djokovic's projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Djokovic is a three-time winner in Madrid.

Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic has blown hot and cold this season, having played two excellent tournaments but overall lacked consistency. The current World No. 5 suffered a first-round exit in Monte Carlo and would be hoping for an improved showing in Madrid, ahead of the all-important French Open.

The three-time champion last triumphed in Madrid in 2019, and hopes to finally end his title drought and cross the 100th career title mark. Let’s take a look at his potential path to the Madrid Open 2025 final.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Madrid Open 2025

Round 1: Bye

Round 2: Matteo Arnaldi or Sebastian Korda

The Serbian is set to kickstart his campaign in Madrid against Matteo Arnaldi, who is currently ranked 44th. The pair have never faced each other before on the ATP Tour.

With Djokovic losing several early contests in the past, this encounter will give a clear idea of what to expect from the 37-year-old in Madrid. Sebastian Korda, the qualifier, could be the other potential opponent if the American beats the Italian.

Round 3: Sebastian Baez

Sebastian Baez reached consecutive finals in Rio and Chile, and even triumphed in Rio. However, he has struggled for form since then.

The Argentine can challenge Djokovic, and the result of the match will depend on how well the Serbian player moves on the court and how well he serves.

Round 4: Frances Tiafoe / Ugo Humbert

Tiafoe doesn’t boast a great record on clay, and his potential clash against Djokovic in the round of 16 is expected to end in the Serbian’s favor.

Moreover, Djokovic enjoys a flawless head-to-head record over the American. Ugo Humbert is the other potential opponent who could battle Djokovic, but the 24-time Grand Slam champion should easily overcome these match-ups and remain in the hunt for a career 100.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Quarter-final: Jack Draper / Matteo Berrettini

The road ahead will now be even tougher for the three-time Madrid champion. Djokovic could face Jack Draper, who has been in excellent form this year. The World No. 6 won Indian Wells last month and hasn’t played the Serbian in the past four years.

Like many others, the Brit sensation didn’t start well in the Monte Carlo Masters, and skipped the Barcelona Open and will hope to come all guns blazing in Madrid.

Matteo Berrettini knocked out Djokovic from Qatar and has been in superb form recently. The tall Italian could meet Djokovic for the sixth time, giving Djokovic an excellent opportunity to avenge his defeat earlier in Doha.

Semi-final: Carlos Alcaraz / Lorenzo Musetti / Stefanos Tsitsipas

A blockbuster semifinal is on the horizon as two of this generation’s standout stars, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, prepare for another thrilling showdown. Alcaraz, a two-time Madrid champion, has rediscovered his form with a Monte Carlo Masters title and a run to the Barcelona final.

Every meeting between the two promises high-quality tennis, with their most recent clay-court clash taking place at the Paris Olympics

Lorenzo Musetti showed his potential in Monte Carlo, where he defeated Alex de Minaur, Tsitsipas, and Leheka and also gave a tough fight to Carlos Alcaraz, but eventually lost. Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn’t won a title yet this year on his favorite surface, and would be desperate to go all the way in Madrid.

Final: Alexander Zverev / Taylor Fritz / Holger Rune

If Novak Djokovic reaches the final, he may face Alexander Zverev, a two-time Madrid champion riding high after winning the title in Munich. Although the German has often faltered in major clashes against Djokovic, his current momentum could pose a real challenge.

Holger Rune, fresh off a title-winning performance against Alcaraz in Barcelona, aims to solidify his top-10 status. Meanwhile, returning from injury, Taylor Fritz will debut his clay season and could emerge as a dangerous dark horse in the draw.

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