Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Djokovic faces Arnaldi for the first time to begin his Madrid Open campaign.

The 100th tour-level title is one of the few achievements Novak Djokovic has yet to accomplish. The Serbian has been searching for an elusive win since winning the year-ending ATP Finals in November 2023.

Since then, he has let the opportunity slip away twice, first at the 2024 Shanghai Open (lost to Jannik Sinner) and more recently at the 2025 Miami Open (lost to Jakub Mensik).  

The former World No. 1 will return to the Madrid Masters 1000 for the first time since 2022, hoping to join the elite club of Jimmy Connors (109) and Roger Federer (103). Arnaldi was kept busy on court by unseeded Borna Coric for nearly three hours before the Italian won 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025 Men’s Singles
• Round: Second round
• Date: April 26
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Preview

Djokovic assumed the lead of the bottom half of the draw after Carlos Alcaraz withdrew from the event with a muscle strain. In Sinner’s absence, the Serbian has had an opportunity to make his presence felt. The 2025 Madrid Masters trophy is fair game, with only Zverev and Djokovic the only active players to have won here since 2015, aside from defending champion Andrey Rublev.

A three-time Madrid champion (2011, 2016, and 2019), Djokovic is 30-9 at La Caja Magica. Facing him on his third visit to Madrid will be 24-year-old Matteo Arnaldi. The unseeded Italian spent two weeks at No. 30, his highest ATP rank last August, and eliminated Andrey Rublev at Indian Wells for his first top-ten win of the season.  

Form

• Novak Djokovic: L-L-W-W-W
• Matteo Arnaldi: W-L-L-L-W 

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 0
• Novak Djokovic: 0 
• Matteo Arnaldi: 0

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: Live streaming, TV channel, where & how to watch?

Stats

Novak Djokovic:

• Djokovic has a 12-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Djokovic has a 30-9 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Djokovic has won 80% of the matches played on clay courts.

Matteo Arnaldi:

• Arnaldi has a 9-9 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Arnaldi has a 4-2 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Arnaldi has won 51% of matches played on clay courts.

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Djokovic -350, Arnaldi +285.
• Spread: Djokovic-3.5 (-130), Arnaldi +4.5 (-144). 
• Total games: Over 21.5 (-121), Under 22.5 (-130).

Match Prediction

Djokovic remains motivated to win, even as he cuts back on his match appearances. The Serbian and three-time Madrid Open champion will be making his 13th appearance in the Spanish capital and is seeded fourth, his lowest since the ATP 1000 event in 2018. The 37-year-old is yet to score a win on clay this season following his opening-round loss to Alejandro Tabilo in Monte-Carlo a fortnight ago.  

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Madrid Open 2025

Arnaldi has also not fired any shots this year. He heads into the second-round clash with the 24-time Grand Slam champion with a 4-2 record on Spanish clay and is on 9-9 this year. Djokovic, with a win-loss record of 12-6 this season, hasn’t fared much better.  

With the Italian Open and Roland Garros approaching, taking on Matteo Arnaldi will give Djokovic a chance to get off to a strong start before moving on.

Result: Djokovic will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch the live telecast and live streaming of the second-round match between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi at the Madrid Open 2025?

The second-round match between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi will be live telecast and streamed on the Sony Network in India. Sky UK will broadcast the event across the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will do the same for tennis fans in the United States.

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