Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Tsitsipas has the upper hand in head-to-head records against Musetti.

Stefanos Tsitsipas stayed the course with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 win over Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff to book a spot in the third round. Tsitsipas, the World No. 18, will face Lorenzo Musetti in the third round, to whom he lost in Monte-Carlo and fell out of the ATP top 10 while aiming to defend his title. 

Tsitsipas’ status as the only Greek player in men’s singles contrasts with the rich Italian representation in Madrid. Lorenzo Musetti became one of five Italians to progress to the third round on Saturday. He took out Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 7-6(3), 6-2, to move ahead and schedule a face-off against Stefanos Tsitsipas.  

Tsitsipas and Musetti came through without much fanfare in their respective matches. Tsitsipas won in less than two hours with four breaks of serve and 16 winners. Musetti spent one hour and 48 minutes on court to prevail over Etcheverry. The Italian carved out just one breakpoint, which he seized, and his 17 winners during his time on the court.

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Third round
• Date: April 28
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Preview

Tsitsipas will hope to improve on his appearance in the 2019 Madrid Open final and turn around his clay-court campaign. The Greek lost in back-to-back quarter-finals in Monte Carlo and Barcelona earlier this month. 

In the Monte Carlo Masters, Tsitsipas failed to defeat eventual finalist Lorenzo Musetti as he sought to defend his title and win his fourth title at an ATP 1000 event. An issue with his back led to his retirement in the quarter-final against Arthur Fils in Barcelona. 

A revenge win against Musetti in a duel between two players with one-handed backhands will usher the Greek into the Round of 16. Tsitsipas will be more or less assured of a semi-final spot once he finds a way past Musetti.

Musetti, who is up to a career-high of No. 11 despite his heartbreaking loss to Carlos Alcaraz in Barcelona, is close to making his top ten debut. He is now No. 9 in the live rankings after posting the second-round win over Etcheverry. 

Form

• Stefanos Tsitsipas: W-L-W-W-L
• Lorenzo Musetti: W-L-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 6
• Tsitsipas: 5
• Musetti: 1

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: Live streaming, TV channel, where & how to watch?

Stats

Stefanos Tsitsipas:

• Tsitsipas has a 16-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Tsitsipas has a 12-6 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Tsitsipas has won 76% of matches played on clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti:

• Musetti has a 13-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Musetti has a 3-3 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Musetti has won 63% of matches played on clay courts.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Tsitsipas -110, Musetti +102.
• Spread: Tsitsipas -1.5 (-118), Musetti +1.5 (-125). 
• Total games: Over 22.5 (-120), Under 23.5 (-129).

Match Prediction

It helps that Musetti is a quick mover on the court and can transition from offence to defence seamlessly. However, Tsitsipas is the better server and owns a better forehand. The Greek’s impressive reputation on clay may have been dented a bit after he fought hard to deliver a win against Jan-Lennard Struff.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Madrid Open 2025

Five of the six matches between Tsitsipas and Musetti have been on clay, with the Greek having a 4-1 lead on the surface. The Italian has stretched Tsitsipas on the red dirt. The 2022 opening round at Roland Garros between the duo is an example of what a determined Musetti can do. He upset the Tsitsipas apple cart by defeating the Athenian on clay for the first time in Monte Carlo with a 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 win. 

While Tsitsipas can rise to the occasion, recent setbacks to begin the European clay-court swing could result in a favourable result in Madrid. With the momentum in Musetti’s favour, the Italian could have the upper hand in this tight contest

Result: Musetti will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch the live telecast and live streaming of the third-round match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti at the Madrid Open 2025?

The third-round match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti will be live telecast and streamed on the Sony Network in India. Sky UK will broadcast the event across the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will do the same for tennis fans in the United States.

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