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Premier League

Opta's supercomputer predicts Premier League Boxing Day matches winners & losers

Published at :December 26, 2023 at 4:54 PM
Modified at :December 27, 2023 at 6:00 PM
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Aditya Chauhan


Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will play the first Boxing Day fixture of the Premier League 2023-24 season

Premier League 2023-24 season’s Boxing Day starts with Nottingham Forest’s trip to St. James’ Park against Newcastle United. Opta’s supercomputer has named who it believes will win Boxing Day’s matches.

On Boxing Day itself, Newcastle (55.7% vs Nottingham Forest), Fulham (39.5% vs Bournemouth) and Luton Town (41.2% vs Sheffield United) are also named as expected winners.

And in surprising news for Man United fans, Erik ten Hag’s team – without a goal in four matches – are given a 44.1% chance of beating high-flying Aston Villa.

Manchester United have been in terrible form, while Villa are third in the table, yet the visitors are only rated as having a 27.5% chance of victory.

Elsewhere, it looks like business as usual for the top teams. Liverpool (59%) are expected to win their game away at Burnley while Arsenal (57.1%) and Man City (62.1%) are tipped to win their matches in the coming days against West Ham and Everton.

Opta’s AI-powered supercomputer predicts Premier League results by estimating the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings, based on historical and recent team performances.

Aston Villa are currently placed as the 11th-best team in Europe on those power rankings. Man United are 26th, stuck below West Ham who they lost 2-0 against on Saturday. Manchester City are No 1 with Arsenal the second-best English team in fifth.

Man United should be somewhat energised on Boxing Day after news broke on Christmas Eve that the club’s £245 million investment by Sir Jim Ratcliffe was confirmed.

Teams will look to end their season on a positive note. Arsenal are likely to end the year at the top of the table.

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