Opta supercomputer predicts AFCON 2023 winner
The 34th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations is set to kick off in a few days in Côte d’Ivoire.
Ivory Coast, the tournament’s organisers of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), will play Guinea-Bissau on Saturday in the tournament’s opener.
Reigning champions Senegal, led by Sadio Mane, enter the competition, which is officially referred to as the 2023 finals even though it is taking place in 2024.
What are the odds that they will win it again? In collaboration with Opta, BBC Sport has crunched the figures to determine who could win the title of African champions.
Senegal, the current holder, is the slight favourite to win the trophy again, according to Opta’s AI projection model.
They were to become the first team to win three straight AfCON titles since Egypt did so between 2006 and 2010 and the fourth team overall. The previous six reigning champions have all finished inside the top 16 of the competition.
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The model for prediction uses betting marketplace odds and Opta’s team ratings to assess the probability of each game result, victory, draw, or loss, to provide an improved understanding of who will prevail in the postponed 2023 Afcon.
Based on past and present team performances, the odds and standings are determined. Using the resulting probability, group structure, and possible knockout round match-ups, the model then takes opponent quality and the difficulties of their route to the final into account.
Africa Cup of Nations 2023: Opta’s competition forecast
| Team | Last 16 | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Final | Winners |
| Senegal | 88.8% | 57.2% | 36.5% | 21.7% | 12.8% |
| Ivory Coast | 84.6% | 53.4% | 33.4% | 19.9% | 12.1% |
| Morocco | 89.7% | 55.6% | 33.2% | 19.3% | 11.1% |
| Algeria | 91.5% | 56.1% | 30.9% | 17.4% | 9.7% |
| Egypt | 88% | 53.9% | 29.6% | 16% | 8.5% |
| Nigeria | 85.3% | 48.5% | 27.6% | 15.3% | 8.1% |
| Cameroon | 82.3% | 47.6% | 27.8% | 14.9% | 7.4% |
| Tunisia | 84.6% | 48.2% | 25.4% | 13.1% | 6.3% |
| Ghana | 80.9% | 44.1% | 22.1% | 11.1% | 5.3% |
| Mali | 76% | 39.4% | 19.1% | 8.7% | 3.7% |
| Congo DR | 68.8% | 33.2% | 14.7% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| South Africa | 66.8% | 31% | 13.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Burkina Faso | 70.1% | 30.7% | 12.2% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Guinea | 54.9% | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Zambia | 58.5% | 24.8% | 10% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Cape Verde | 52.9% | 20% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
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