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AFCON- Africa Cup of Nations

Which team needs to do what to reach AFCON 2023 knockout stage?

Published at :January 23, 2024 at 6:17 PM
Modified at :January 23, 2024 at 6:17 PM
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Dhruv Sharma


AFCON 2023 has entered the final stage of group matches

The group stage of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2023) has proven to be a captivating journey, marked by a flurry of goals, unexpected outcomes, and stellar individual displays. Despite the thrill, the competitive landscape remains intense, with teams demonstrating the ability to claim points from one another.

With only two teams eliminated thus far, the stakes are notably high as we approach the conclusive round of group matches. The unpredictability of results adds an extra layer of excitement, making the final group stage clashes important for teams striving to secure their places in the knockout rounds.

Let’s delve into the AFCON last-round scenarios, providing insights into the requirements for each team to evade elimination and secure advancement to the knockout stage.

Group A

Nigeria AFCON 2023
Nigeria finished as the runners-up

Group A comprises the host nation, Ivory Coast, alongside Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Guinea-Bissau. At the bottom of the group, Guinea-Bissau have been eliminated after losing both games, becoming the only team to get eliminated. The stage was set for a three-way battle among the remaining teams to secure advancement, with all three fancying their chances, especially considering that four of the best six third-placed teams will progress.

Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria, entered the final matchday with four points. Equatorial Guinea faced the hosts and disappointed the home fans as Equatorial Guinea went on to win the match 4-0. Nigeria despite not scoring from open play this tournament, have also managed to secure their place in the knockout stages after a 1-0 win against Guinea-Bissau.

Ivory Coast‘s loss to Equatorial Guinea means they have to wait till Wednesday to see if they can manage to qualify as a third-placed team. They were leading the best third-placed teams ranking and held a solid position, but a disastrous defeat could end their campaign eventually leading to a first-round exit.

Group B

Cape Verde AFCON 2023
Cape Verde won Group B

Cape Verde, the surprise standout of the tournament, have secured progression but also clinched the top spot in their group. Egypt, currently in second with three points, have also secured advancement with a draw, Ghana were held to a draw by Mozambique after they conceded two late goals in the added time which ended their hopes of qualifying.

However, Egypt without Mohamed Salah due to a hamstring injury still managed to qualify despite their draw against Cape Verde. Mozambique, have been eliminated with just two points after they failed to beat Ghana. Ghana needed a victory to secure a higher position than Egypt but Egypt’s draw to Cape Verde shattered their dreams.

The Black Stars won’t be able to progress as one of the best third-placed teams with just two points from the three matches they played in this year’s AFCON.

Group C

Senegal AFCON 2023
Senegal started their title defence with two wins in two games

Senegal have secured a spot in the knockouts with back-to-back victories and can claim the top spot by avoiding defeat, regardless of Cameroon vs. Gambia result. Guinea, with four points, could surpass Senegal with a win, but a draw ensures their progression to the knockouts in second place.

Cameroon, with just one point so far, can secure at least third place by defeating Gambia. They could even overtake Guinea on goal difference if they win and Senegal also triumphs. Gambia’s best hope is third place, requiring a win over Cameroon, goal difference improvement, and favourable results in other groups. Despite challenges, Gambia will aim to finish the campaign positively.

Group D

Angola and Burkina Faso, both with four points and a +1 goal difference, face a decisive final match to determine the group’s top spot. A draw would likely benefit both teams, securing their progression, while Algeria could finish with five points by defeating Mauritania.

If all three teams end with five points, their order of progression would be determined by the number of goals scored in their matches, with Angola currently at a disadvantage. Algeria, drawing against Mauritania, would settle for third place, a position that was sufficient for progression in the last two tournaments with three points and a neutral goal difference.

Mauritania confronts a tough task, needing a win and relying on favourable results in other groups to secure advancement as one of the best-ranked third-placed teams, akin to Gambia’s scenario.

Group E

Namibia’s surprising 1-0 win over Tunisia has injected unpredictability into the group, leaving all teams with a theoretical chance to top it. Mali, assured of at least a top-three finish with four points, can secure group victory by defeating Namibia.

Even a draw would guarantee Mali a top-two position, though a South Africa win over Tunisia could propel South Africa to the top. Despite a 4-0 loss to South Africa, Namibia could still claim the group’s top spot with a victory over Mali and South Africa failing to beat Tunisia.

Tunisia initially favoured to win the group, faces an uphill battle with just one point from two matches. Their only chance to stay in the tournament is a victory over an in-form South Africa, and even then, they would progress only as one of the best third-placed teams if Namibia avoids defeat against Mali. Tunisia have successfully reached the knockout stage in 16 consecutive tournaments, experiencing elimination before the knockout stage on only four occasions.

Group F

Morocco initiated their campaign impressively with a 3-0 win over Tanzania, but their momentum slowed in a 1-1 draw against the Democratic Republic of Congo. Despite this, Morocco secures the top spot, ensuring at least a top-three finish and likely progressing even with a loss, potentially dropping to third only if both Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo win, given their favourable goal difference.

The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia share two points each with an identical record and head-to-head performance. If their final group results mirror each other, a draw of lots will determine their second and third-place positions.

Tanzania’s inability to hold onto their lead against 10-man Zambia, leading to a 1-1 draw, has left them at the bottom of the group with one point. However, they still have a chance to advance to second place if they secure their first-ever AFCON victory and the Democratic Republic of Congo fails to beat Morocco.

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