Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Miami Open 2025

Sabalenka is in her first Miami Open semifinals.

Aryna Sabalenka will compete against Jasmine Paolini in the Miami Open 2025 semifinals. Sabalenka reached the Miami Open semi-finals for the first time after beating Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng 6-2, 7-5. Sabalenka has reached the semifinals of three of the four Grand Prix events this year, including the Australian Open, Indian Wells Open, and Miami.

What about her opponent? She too made a little history! Paolini became the first Italian woman to reach the Miami Open semifinals after knocking off Magda Linette 6-3, 6-2. The 28-year-old has made it to Grand Slam finals this year at the Roland Garros and Wimbledon events, although she ran into some trouble in her WTA 1000 events failing to advance out of the Round of 16 until now.

Also Read: Miami Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Match Details

• Tournament: Miami Open 2025 Women’s Singles
• Round: Semifinals
• Date: March 27
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, United States
• Surface: Hard (Outdoor)

Preview

Aryna Sabalenka’s 2024 has been a rollercoaster—she stormed to the Brisbane International title and then finished runner-up at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. In Miami, she has looked sharp, taking down defending champion Danielle Collins and world No. 9 Qinwen Zheng. Against Zheng, she fired 24 winners and dominated on serve, showing why she’s the world No. 1. However, she’s never won Miami, could this be the breakthrough?

Also Read: Miami Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Jasmine Paolini, seeded sixth, is enjoying a dream run at the Miami Open. The 28-year-old reached her first two Grand Slam finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2024 and is now the first Italian woman to reach the Miami semi-finals. She has beaten tough opposition, including Magda Linette, and her game built on speed, defense, and variety can frustrate even the biggest hitters.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-L
• Jasmine Paolini: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 5
• Aryna Sabalenka: 3
• Jasmine Paolini: 2

Also Read: Miami Open: Full list of title winners

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka:

• Sabalenka has a 21-4  win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 12-6 win-loss record in Miami.
• Sabalenka has won 73% of matches played on hard courts

Jasmine Paolini:

• Paolini has a 12-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Paolini has a 5-4 win-loss record in Miami
• Paoli has won 70% of matches on the hard court.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -500, Paolini +500
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (-110), Paolini +5.5 (-133). 
• Total games: Over 19.5 (-110), Under  19.5 (-111).

Match Prediction

World No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka is a force to be reckoned with on hard courts, sporting 47 wins in a year, four trophies, and a cold-blooded 48.3% break-point conversion rate.

Sabalenka once again showed why she is the WTA’s most dangerous player from the baseline by beating Olympic gold medallist Qinwen Zheng 6-2, 7-5 in the quarterfinals. However, she is looking for revenge, as her last tournament ended in disappointment as she fell to 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva in the Indian Wells final.

Paolini is making history for Italian tennis, as the No. 6 seed she is the first Italian woman to reach the semifinals of the Miami Open. She is a crafty, patient, resilient, and generally crafty player, she took out Magda Linette in straight sets while breaking serve seven times.

But can she stop Sabalenka? The history suggests not, with Sabalenka leading their head-to-head 3-2, and performing well in pressure situations.

Also Read: Top five youngest men’s singles champions at Miami Open

Expect Paolini to snag a set, but Sabalenka’s firepower should get her through in a three-set.

Result: Sabalenka will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of the semi-final between Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini at the Miami Open 2025?

Indian tennis fans hoping to watch Aryna Sabalenka take on Jasmine Paolini in the semi-finals will have to rely on online streaming, as the match won’t be televised in India. Instead, viewers can catch the action live on WTA TV and Tennis TV. Sky UK holds the broadcasting rights in the United Kingdom, while fans in the United States can watch it via the Tennis Channel.

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