Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Sabalenka faces Indian Wells debutant Kartal in the round of 16.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka continued her Indian Wells Open 2025 campaign with a comfortable 6-1, 6-2 victory over Lucia Bronzetti on Monday. It was Sabalenka’s third straight victory over Bronzetti, even as she gears up to meet Britain’s Sonay Kartal in their first-ever career head-to-head. Sabalenka dropped just three games en route to her 74-minute victory over Bronzetti.

Kartal, meanwhile, will look to make the most of her maiden appearance at Indian Wells. The lowest-ranked player in the main draw, Kartal, was a backdoor entry into the main draw as a lucky loser after Sloane Stephens withdrew with a foot injury. The British woman is on a roll at the venue, not dropping a set across three matches. 

Also Read: Top five title favourites in women’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

Kartal, the World No. 83, took out Beatriz Haddad Maia, 6-2, 6-1, in just 68 minutes. The one-sided win over World No. 16 Haddad Maia was Kartal’s first over a top-20 player. She had to work harder against Polina Kudermetova before prevailing 7-5, 6-3 in 84 minutes.

Match Details

• Tournament: Indian Wells Open 2025 Women’s Singles
• Round: Fourth round
• Date: March 12
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, United States
• Surface: Hard

Preview

Sonay Kartal rose to a career-high of World No. 80 in February before settling in at No. 83. The sole British woman left in the main draw, Kartal won three qualifying matches last year at Wimbledon, her home Grand Slam. Beating two top 50 players, Sorana Cirstea and Clara Burel, in the main draw secured Kartal a third-round appearance in SW19, where she lost to Coco Gauff.

The 23-year-old Kartal, who counts countryman Andy Murray among her idols, won her first title at the WTA 250 event in Tunisia two months after making the main draw at Wimbledon.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

A fourth-round contest against World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka awaits the seeded Kartal in her first-ever visit to Indian Wells. Sabalenka appears to be shaking off the rust that led to early exits in Qatar and Dubai. Losing in the Australian Open 2025 final to Madison Keys had placed the top seed on the back foot.

After receiving a bye in the first round, Sabalenka performed strongly to defeat McCartney Kessler and dent the American presence at Indian Wells. The 7-6(4), 6-3 win over Kessler set the stage for the Belarusian’s steamrolling of Italian Lucia Bronzetti 6-1, 6-2. Top-seed Sabalenka will seek to remedy last season’s round-of-16 loss to Emma Navarro at the venue.  

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-L-W-L
• Sonay Kartal: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 0
• Aryna Sabalenka: 0
• Sonay Kartal: 0

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka: 

• Sabalenka has a 14-3 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 13-5 win-loss record in Indian Wells.
• Sabalenka has won 73% of matches played on hard courts.

Sonay Kartal:

• Kartal has a 6-3 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Kartal is making her debut in Indian Wells.
• Kartal has won 80% of matches played on hard courts.

Also Read: Top 10 players to watch at Indian Wells Open 2025

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal: Betting tips and odds

Moneyline: Sabalenka -1100, Kartal +860.

Spread: Sabalenka -6.5 (-105), Kartal +6.5 (-120). 

Total games: Over 18.5 (-104), Under 18.5 (-124).

Match Prediction

Sabalenka, a finalist in 2023, has yet to win the Indian Wells Open. The Belarusian won every match and held the No. 1 position. With defending champion and World No. 2 Iga Swiatek breathing down her neck, a title run will only help her cause.

The big-hitting top seed faces the prospect of a renewed rivalry with either Coco Gauff or Madison Keys in the last four. A possible run-in with Jasmine Paolini could happen in the last eight.   

Also Read: Top 10 players who have withdrawn from Indian Wells Open 2025

Kartal has enjoyed a good run in the Californian desert and secured a win against some big names along the way. Replicating that early success against World No. 1 Sabalenka could be beyond the Englishwoman at this stage.

Sabalenka’s match-winning ability and facing Kartal on her favourite surface should watch her advance with relative ease. 

Result: Sabalenka will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of the fourth-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Sonay Kartal at the 2025 Indian Wells Open?

Indian fans can tune in to premium streamer Tennis Channel for the fourth-round action between Aryna Sabalenka and Sonay Kartal. Tennis Channel will also cater to residents in the United States, while Sky Sports will live stream the match within the United Kingdom.

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