Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: ATP Finals 2024

Alcaraz and Rublev need a win to stay alive in the contest.

Carlos Alcaraz finds himself facing an inconvenient truth. The four-time Grand Slam champion is on the brink of elimination in ATP Finals 2024 after losing against Casper Ruud and a stomach issue in the opening round. Alcaraz is facing an uphill battle if he is to progress and live to fight another day. The Spaniard is placed fourth in the John Newcombe Group after losing to Ruud for the first time in five meetings. 

Alcaraz recovered to 5-2 in the second after losing the opening set 6-1. But he could not hold back Rudd as the Norwegian claimed the next five games, crossing the finish line, 6-1, 7-5 in 86 minutes. Ruud converted all four breakpoint opportunities besides capitalising on the 34 unforced errors that flowed from the racquet of the World No. #3 from Spain.

Rublev could not find his way past two-time ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev. Rublev lost to the German (4-6, 4-6) for the seventh time across 10 ATP-level matches. As he won more games than Alcaraz in his first round-robin match, Rublev is ahead of the Spaniard in third place in the John Newcombe Group.

Zverev broke Rublev’s serve once in each set to seal victory and a second win this season over over the Russian. The German accumulated nine aces and 22 winners, coupled with a 28/35 (80%) first serve win percentage to overwhelm Rublev.

Also Read: Will Carlos Alcaraz be fit to face Andrey Rublev in ATP Finals 2024?

Match Details

Tournament: ATP Finals 2024

Round: Group stage round-robin

Date: November 13

Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy

Surface: Hard Court

Preview

Carlos Alcaraz finds himself in an unexpected must-win situation against Rublev. Both players are tied at a win each in their career head-to-head. The pair will renew their rivalry from the quarter-final of the Madrid Open, where Rublev returned victorious and went on to claim the title.

Their only other meeting came at the round-robin stage of the 2023 ATP Finals. Alcaraz took the win on that occasion. Alcaraz and Rublev now face off in the same stage of the tournament after exactly a year.

Also Read: Can Carlos Alcaraz end Spain’s 26-year wait for an ATP Finals champion?

Like Alcaraz, Andrey Rublev, too, needs a win to advance to the knockout stage, leaving their prospects in the tournament on thin ice. The Russian has not had the best hard court swing, with his temper getting in the way.

Alcaraz, for his part, has been grappling with an inconsistent season despite winning four ATP titles. The Spaniard’s fortunes took a turn for the worse after he won silver in Paris, making early exits at the Cincinnati Masters and the US Open.

Form

Carlos Alcaraz: W-L-W-L-L

Andrey Rublev: W-L-L-W-L

Head-to-head record

Matches: 2

Carlos Alcaraz: 1

Andrey Rublev: 1

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a win ratio of 79.3% in matches played in his career.
• Alcaraz has won two of his last five matches.
• Alcaraz has completed the rare Roland Garros-Wimbledon double in 2024.

Andrey Rublev

• Rublev has a win ratio of 65% in matches played in his career.
• Rublev has won two of his last five matches.
• Rublev claimed the second ATP 1000 trophy in his career in Madrid. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -188, Rublev +170
• Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 (+105), Rublev +3.5 (-154)
• Total sets: Over 22.5 (-120), Under 22.5 (-110)

Match Prediction

Alcaraz will have to be fighting fit if he is to successfully take on Andrey Rublev for a fighting chance to remain in the event. While the World No. #3 remains a favourite on paper, Alcaraz is on the back foot heading into the match against Rublev. 

The Spaniard’s post-Wimbledon run in 2023 and 2024 appear to match up as they have fallen short of the high expectations envisioned. Alcaraz has historically struggled at indoor venues. He is 23-10 overall when playing indoors vs 184–44 when playing at outdoor venues.

Also Read: Top five players with most ATP Finals appearances

Alcaraz continues to be bogged down by the abdominal issue and ended his practice session in just 10 minutes on Tuesday. If the Spaniard is not at his best, Rublev will leverage the situation to extract the result he wants. The Russian will have the mental edge over Alcaraz, having defeated him in Madrid in May, and an upset could be on the cards.

Result: Andrey Rublev to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev round-robin match at ATP Finals 2024?

Sony Sports and SonyLiv will broadcast the round-robin tie between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev in ATP Finals 2024. Viewers in the UK can turn to Sky Sports Tennis and Now TV for live broadcast of the season finale. American viewers can subscribe to the Tennis Channel or Fubo to enjoy uninterrupted coverage of the ATP Finals.

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