Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Cincinnati Open 2025

Alcaraz and Rublev meet in an outdoor hard-court showdown for the first time.

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz recorded his fifteenth win at the ATP 1000 level by defeating Italy’s Luca Nardi 6-1, 6-4. It was the Spaniard’s second career win over Nardi, with both matches against the Italian taking place in the ongoing season.

It took an hour and 20 minutes for the No. 2 seed to confirm his quarter-finals spot at the 2025 Cincinnati Open. The World No. 2 got off to a strong start in the rain-impacted game on Centre Court by taking the first set in just 27 minutes.

Nardi, making his debut in Cincinnati, served up eight double faults, five in the second set alone. Nardi served two double faults in the eighth game of the second set, which could not have come at a worse time, as it allowed Alcaraz to serve for the match.  

The Spaniard next plays ninth seed Andrey Rublev, who got the better of Francisco Comesana 6-2, 6-3 to earn payback for his loss to the Argentine at last year’s Wimbledon.

Andrey Rublev advanced in 64 minutes to level their head-to-head at 1-1 and book passage into the last eight for the second year in a row.

Match Details

• Tournament: Cincinnati Open 2025
• Round: Quarter-finals
• Date: August 15
• Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Centre, Cincinnati, United States
• Surface: Hard

ALSO READ: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Preview

Alcaraz and Rublev are slated to clash in an outdoor hard court event for the first time. The 22-year-old Spaniard will have the mental edge from a 3-1 lead over Rublev in their head-to-head. The Russian, seeded ninth, was a finalist in 2021, but made early exits in Cincinnati the next two years.

Rublev was put through the wringer by Alexei Popyrin, surviving a three-hour, 30-minute battle before edging the Australian 6-7 (5), 7-6 (5), 7-5. The Russian was responsible for American Learner Tien’s exit from his home event 7-6(4), 6-3 win over Tien ahead of his marathon three-setter against Popyrin.

The Spaniard won his 51st match of the season on a day when fourth seed Taylor Fritz bowed out to French qualifier Terence Atmane in three sets. This leaves Canadian Open champion Ben Shelton as the sole American remaining in the fray.

Along with Alexander Zverev, Shelton is a possible semi-final opponent for the winner of the Alcaraz-Rublev showdown.

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-L-W
• Andrey Rublev: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Carlos Alcaraz: 3
• Andrey Rublev: 1

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz:

• Alcaraz has a 51-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Alcaraz has a 9-4 win-loss record in Cincinnati.
• Alcaraz has won 75% of the matches played on hard courts.

Andrey Rublev:

• Rublev has a 29-18 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Rublev has a 13-7 win-loss record in Cincinnati.
• Rublev has won 63% of matches played on hard courts.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -425, Rublev +365.
• Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 (-150), Rublev 4.5 (-175).
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-134), Under 22.5 (-132).
• 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz -295, Rublev +235.
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-152), Under 10.5 (-250).

Match Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev are headed into their second face-to-face at an ATP 1000 event. Their first such meeting took place on the clay courts of Madrid, with Rublev taking the win in three sets.

Rublev’s win over Alcaraz in the Spanish capital was his only win in four meetings. While the Russian went on to win the Madrid Open title, it was another 11 months before he got to lay his hands on another trophy, which was at Doha in February this year.

ALSO READ: Could Carlos Alcaraz reclaim World No. 1 ranking from Jannik Sinner at Cincinnati Open 2025?

The Spaniard’s ability to pull himself out of trouble more often than not will leave him fairly immune to anything Rublev throws at him. Alcaraz, known for his crafty shots, will look to counter Rublev’s powerful game with a change of pace and target Rublev’s backhand to keep him on the defensive.

Result: Alcaraz will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev, quarter-final match at Cincinnati Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the 2025 Cincinnati Open quarter-final clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev on the Sony TEN Network and its streaming service, SonyLIV.

Sky UK will handle the coverage within the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel takes over in the United States.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram