Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz remains on track for the first three-peat in California since 2016.

Carlos Alcaraz was reunited with Lance Davis at Indian Wells just before his match against Quentin Halys. Last season, Davis came to the rescue when bees attacked him during his last eighth match with Alexander Zverev.

Alcaraz is looking to bag his third straight Indian Wells trophy after opening his campaign with a quickfire 6-4, 6-2 win against Halys. The World No. 3 completed the 67-minute win aided by seven aces and 25 winners. Of course, the bees stayed clear of Alcaraz this year.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Carlos Alcaraz now faces a resurgent Denis Shapovalov in the third round. The Candian overcame Aussie qualifier Adam Walton, 6-3, 6-2, in 76 minutes, helping himself to 17 winners and five breaks of serve against Walton. The 25-year-old Shapovalov is a win away from equalling his best result in the tournament, having reached the fourth round in 2019. 

Shapovalov became the first Canadian to win the Dallas Open trophy this year since Milos Raonic in 2013 and was a finalist at the 2019 Paris Masters. The Canadian left-hander returned to the top 30 after his Dallas win in February and made the last four in Acapulco a few weeks later. His Dallas title run included three top ten wins to bag his first title since the Belgrade Open in November 2024. 

Match Details

• Tournament: Indian Wells Open 2025 Men’s Singles
• Round: Third round
• Date: March 11
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, United States
• Surface: Hard

Preview

Alcaraz and Shapovalov’s upcoming third-round clash at the Indian Wells Masters will be the second of their careers. They last met at the 2023 French Open, where Alcaraz cruised to a 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 win.

The two-time defending champion is the clear favourite to make it three in a row after Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic headed for the exit. There have been so many upsets in this tournament that only half of the top ten remain. Sixteenth seed Frances Tiafoe joined the exodus after losing to World No. 349 Japanese qualifier Yosuke Watanuki in straight sets on Sunday.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Shapovalov has a healthy 11-4 record in 2025, while Alcaraz is just ahead at 12-2. Alcaraz, who won the 2025 ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam on debut, will be looking to join Roger Federer (2004-2006) and Novak Djokovic (2014-2016) as only the third player in tournament history to secure a three-peat. 

Alcaraz has a relatively clear path to the final. The Spaniard’s name appears in the bottom half of the draw, where he is seeded to meet Alex de Minaur in the last eight and Taylor Fritz in the last four. The World No. 3 has yet to lose a match to either player. 

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-L-W-W-W
• Denis Shapovalov:  W-L-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 1
• Carlos Alcaraz: 1
• Denis Shapovalov: 0

Also Read: Indian Wells Open: Full list of winners

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz: 

• Alcaraz has a 12-2 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Alcaraz has a 17-2 win-loss record in Indian Wells.
• Alcaraz has won 75% of the matches played on hard courts.

Denis Shapovalov:

• Shapovalov has an 11-4 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Shapovalov has a 7-6 record in Indian Wells.
• Shapovalov has won 57% of matches played on hard courts.

Also Read: Top 10 players to watch at Indian Wells Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -525, Shapovalov +440.
• Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-100), Shapovalov +4.5 (-109). 
• Total games: Over 20.5 (-117), Under 21.5 (-125).

Match Prediction

Denis Shapovalov has rediscovered his form over the past month and in time for Indian Wells. Over the past month, he got the better of four top 20 players – Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, and Tomas Machac.

Shapovalov is one of the ATP Tour’s spectacular shotmakers. Against Walton, the Canadian showed his range of strokes, including powerful crosscourt forehands and the more deft crosscourt drop shots that left the Australian scrambling. 

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

Alcaraz, who also boasts a handy bag of tricks, possesses an explosive forehand and is unafraid to approach the net. The Spaniard will adopt his all-court game and defensive skills as Plan B, which could make life difficult for Shapovalov. 

Unless Shapovalov can dig deep to pull out something special, there is little he can do to stop Alcaraz from advancing.  

Result: Alcaraz will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of the third-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov at the 2025 Indian Wells Open?

Sony Network and its streaming partner SonyLiv will carry the third-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov for Indian viewers. Sky UK and the Tennis Channel will beam the event live for their viewers in the United Kingdom and the United States, respectively. 

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