Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner final prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: ATP Finals 2025

Alcaraz leads Sinner by 4-1 in 2025.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz head into the ATP Finals 2025 championship match as the season’s defining forces, meeting in a sixth final of 2025 and establishing a rivalry that has shaped the year’s biggest stages.

Both arrive unbeaten in Turin, with Alcaraz securing the year-end No. 1 and Sinner extending his indoor streak to 30 victories, setting up a finale that felt inevitable long before the week began.

Their path to Sunday showcased peak-level tennis on both sides. Alcaraz has torn through the draw with revived indoor confidence, while Sinner hasn’t dropped a set all week, becoming the first man since Djokovic in 2018 to reach the final without being broken.

With the season’s major honors split between them, the stage is set for a final worthy of a generational rivalry.

​​Match details

• Tournament: ATP Finals 2025
• Round: Final
• Date: Sunday, November 16
• Venue: Turin, Italy
• Surface: Indoor Hard​​ Court

World No. 1 vs World No. 2. Jannik vs Carlitos. The 2025 #NittoATPFinals final is gonna be BLOCKBUSTER. pic.twitter.com/Hn53J8pWhT

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 15, 2025

​Preview  

Alcaraz arrives in his first ATP Finals title match after a flawless run through the group stage and a clinical semi-final win over Felix Auger-Aliassime. His indoor form, questioned after a stumble in Paris, has flipped dramatically through crisp hitting, bold patterns and supreme baseline coverage.

Sinner, meanwhile, has mirrored that dominance with equal authority, riding a 30-match indoor winning streak and nine consecutive victories in Turin without dropping a set.

His gutsy semi-final win over Alex de Minaur again highlighted his precision serving, relentless depth and ability to shift into a higher gear when the moment demands it.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz: Who has won most big titles?

Their rivalry carries a rich and complicated history. Alcaraz leads the overall head-to-head 10–5 and holds a 4–1 edge this season, including victories at Roland Garros, Cincinnati and the US Open. Sinner’s lone win came at Wimbledon, where he overpowered Alcaraz with his most complete performance of the year.

Alcaraz has controlled their hard-court meetings 7–2, yet indoor conditions tilt the balance slightly toward Sinner, who has become the sport’s most complete and dangerous player under a roof.

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-L
• Jannik Sinner: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 15
• Carlos Alcaraz: 10
• Jannik Sinner: 5

Full head-to-head details here

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a 71-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Alcaraz has a 7-4 win-loss record in Turin
• Alcaraz has won 77% of matches played on hard courts

Jannik Sinner

• Sinner has a 56-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sinner has a 13-2 win-loss record in year-end finals
• Sinner has won 80% of matches played on hard courts

👾 The final 👾 Choose your player 🎮#NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/4bYNaCXN83

— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 15, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz +150, Sinner -160
• Spread: Alcaraz +2.5 (-112), Sinner -1.5 (-130)
• Total Games: Over 23.5 (-102), Under 23.5 (-125)
• 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz +133, Sinner -145
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-152), Under 9.5 (+123)

Also Read: ATP Finals 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Match prediction

Sinner’s indoor dominance cannot be overlooked. His serve has been nearly impenetrable all week, consistently landing above 70 percent with unmatched efficiency behind it. He enters the final at 20-1 since the US Open, capturing titles in Beijing, Vienna and Paris, and refining his patterns with added finesse, touch and tactical patience, improvements he explicitly designed to solve the Alcaraz problem.

Alcaraz, though, remains the one player who repeatedly finds solutions against Sinner on the biggest stages. His variety, defensive range and ability to shift momentum at will have broken open several tight matches in their rivalry.

Playing his first ever year-end final, Alcaraz will look to tick another milestone, but could find his taks cut out against the Italian, whose game is better suited for the conditions on offer.

Result: Jannik Sinner to win in three sets.

​​Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner final match at ATP Finals 2025?

The championship match will be available to Indian viewers on the Sony Network. Viewers in the UK can tune in to Sky UK, while American audiences can watch the action unfold on Tennis Channel.

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