Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Monte Carlo Masters 2025

Alcaraz hunts 18th title in Monte Carlo showdown.

In an all-Spanish clash in the semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Alejandro Davidovich, it was the 21-year-old Alcaraz who prevailed in straight sets. Playing just his second Monte Carlo Masters, Alcaraz is now only one win away from glory.

The clash saw a tight first set, which was initially dominated by Alcaraz, who was a break ahead, but Davidovich broke back to force a tiebreak. However, Alcaraz won 7-2 to clinch the first set. The four-time Grand Slam winner was far more convincing in the second set to book his spot in the finals.

Despite the victory, Alcaraz’s struggles with first-serve consistency and a low conversion rate extended the match longer than expected — raising concerns about these recurring flaws that could prove costly against higher-ranked opponents. Nevertheless, the Spaniard now stands just one win away from claiming his 18th career title, with Lorenzo Musetti looking to spoil the party in the Monte Carlo final.

Match Details

• Tournament: Monte Carlo Masters 2025
• Round: Final
• Date: April 13
• Venue: Monte-Carlo Country Club, Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, France
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Monte Carlo Masters 2025 has been Lorenzo Musetti’s best performance this season, and he has unfinished business. Fighting for a maiden ATP-1000 title, the Italian has begun the clay season in style and would hope to end the competition with a title.

His journey so far has been riddled with challenges, downing Jiri Lehecka in the second round in three, Matteo Berrettini in the round of 16 in straight sets, two-time winner and reigning champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets.

Alex de Minaur, who had won his previous round 6-0 6-0, smashed Musetti in the first set 6-1 and looked to register another easy win. But the Italian had other plans, mounting a spirited comeback to force a deciding set and eventually clinching the match in a tense tiebreak.

Now, Lorenzo Musetti gears up for one final push against the explosive Carlos Alcaraz, who has bested him in all three of their previous encounters. However, their head-to-head on clay is evenly poised at 1–1, with Musetti defeating Alcaraz at the 2022 Hamburg Open, while Alcaraz got his revenge in Madrid 2023.

Also Read: What Carlos Alcaraz must do to reclaim World No #2 ranking after Monte Carlo Masters 2025?

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-L
• Lorenzo Musetti: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Alcaraz: 3
• Musetti: 1

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz: 

• Alcaraz has an 19-4 win-loss record in 2025
• Alcaraz has a 4-1 win-loss record in Monte-Carlo
• Alcaraz has an 82%-win record on clay

Lorenzo Musetti

• Musetti has an 12-4 win-loss record in 2025
• Musetti has an 12-4 win-loss record in Monte-Carlo
• Musetti owns a 62%-win record on clay

Also Read: Lorenzo Musetti becomes first player born in 2002 to reach this milestone after making semi-finals at Monte Carlo Masters

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -400, Musetti +325.
• Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-110), Musetti +4.5 (-115). 
• Total games: Over 20.5 (-118), Under 20.5 (-104).

Match Prediction

On paper, Alcaraz seems to be the favourite, but Musetti has shown he has the tools to trouble the Spaniard. The Italian may look to exploit gaps in Alcaraz’s game, though the quick turnaround could be a challenge after a series of grueling matches.

Alcaraz, on the other hand, will back himself to deliver on the big stage as he aims to claim his 18th career title, and his first ever Monte Carlo Masters crown. Either way, a thrilling showdown awaits between two of the sport’s brightest young stars — a spectacle of nerve, flair, and high-octane tennis.

Result: Alcaraz will win in three sets

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti, men’s singles final at Monte Carlo Masters 2025?

The final match between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will be live telecast and streamed on Sony Network in India. Sky UK is the official broadcaster in the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will stream the face-off live within the United States. More details here

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