Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic semi-final prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: US Open 2025

Novak Djokovic has won four of his last five meetings with Alcaraz.

In a rematch of the Australian Open quarter-final this season, 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic will face 2022 US Open winner Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s singles semi-finals at Flushing Meadows. Djokovic has the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but as he himself has admitted, Carlos Alcaraz is the one with better momentum.

The 38-year-old reached his fourth consecutive Grand Slam semis of 2025 with a four-set victory over Taylor Fritz at the US Open, marking the seventh time he’s achieved four Slam semi-finals in a single year.

He was far from his best, describing the match as a grind where survival and determination carried him through.

Despite fitness concerns that have plagued him throughout the season, including injuries at the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon, the Serbian once again showed his resilience and championship pedigree.

Meanwhile, Alcaraz powered past Jiri Lehecka, wrapping up the match in just one hour and 56 minutes. Clad in pink and embracing the role of showman, the Spaniard extended his winning streak to 11 following an effortless 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 victory over World No. 21 Jiri Lehecka.

Djokovic 🆚 AlcarazThe world awaits Friday. pic.twitter.com/IK7I763rZP

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 3, 2025

The second seed hammered 28 winners with his formidable forehand contributing 17 winners to the overall tally. His commanding performance confirmed a third semi-final appearance for Alcaraz, and enhanced his staggering run at the Flushing Meadows, having not dropped a set so far.

With two days of break on offer for both men, they will return to court with fresher legs. Marking their maiden US Open duel, this will easily be the most high-profile encounter at the major event this year.

Match details

• Tournament: US Open 2025
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: September 5
• Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, New York
• Surface: Hard Court

ALSO READ: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger Aliassime prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: US Open 2025

Preview

After suffering back-to-back losses against Jannik Sinner in Grand Slam semis, Djokovic prepares to meet Alcaraz for the second time this season.

Their previous meeting was at the 2025 Australian Open quarter-finals, when the Serbian showcased his trademark resilience to defeat Alcaraz in four sets, braving injury concerns.

In a match filled with heavy shot-making and long rallies, Djokovic’s experience and composure under pressure proved decisive, allowing him to neutralize Alcaraz’s explosive game and extend his dominance in Melbourne, where he has been nearly unbeatable throughout his career.

Prior to that, they faced off in the Paris Olympics final, with Djokovic once again downing the Spaniard. Hence, the Serbian is riding on a two-match streak against the World No. 2, and is yet to lose a match on hard courts against the five-time major champion.

However, Alcaraz has seemed arguably the most dangerous and confident man in New York so far, rampaging past his rivals in dominant form. However, his draw has been generous, and the Serbian will look to complete a hat-trick of wins over the Spaniard and reach his first Grand Slam final since SW19 2024.

🎥 Highlights from the epic Melbourne 2025 chapter of the Djokovic-Alcaraz rivalry 😍 pic.twitter.com/xNl7L9nh7g

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 22, 2025

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-W
• Novak Djokovic: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 8
• Carlos Alcaraz: 5
• Novak Djokovic: 3

Full h2h details here

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a 59-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Alcaraz has a 22-3 win-loss record at the US Open
• Alcaraz has won 75% of the matches played on hard courts

Novak Djokovic

• Djokovic has a 31-9 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Djokovic has a 95-14 win-loss record in New York
• Djokovic has won 84% of matches played on hard courts

ALSO READ: US Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -350, Djokovic +300
• Spread: Alcaraz -5.5 (-110), Djokovic +5.5 (-108)
• Total Games: Over 35.5 (-120), Under 38.5 (-140)
• 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz -240, Djokovic +190
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-138), Under 10.5 (-295)

Match prediction

Against Fritz, Djokovic found a way to prevail on important points. But in the fourth set, he looked tired and was not moving well. While it did not cost him against the American, Alcaraz is going to certainly use this strategy to ensure Djokovic engages in long rallies and grinds his way through every point.

Alcaraz meanwhile has been increasing his level with every passing match, improving to 35 wins out of his previous 36, as he inches closer to the World No. 1 ranking.

The Spaniard remains the only man to not have dropped a set so far and will hope to mainly continue serving well. After all, his serves let him down in Australia against Djokovic, and this facet of his game play determines the result more often than not.

While the Serbian is expected to perform better as compared to his Roland Garros semi-final outing, Alcaraz currently seems to be a bar above the 24-time Grand Slam champion.

Apart from his ability to produce magic and do the unplayable, the 22-year-old is also going to have the upper-hand in long rallies, and is expected to emerge victorious in convincing fashion.

Update: Having been allotted the afternoon session for this contest, Alcaraz gains a massive advantage as Djokovic will have to fight the sweltering heat of New York, potentially causing fatigue which could hinder his performance should the match go deep.

Result: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic, semi-final match at 2025 US Open?

Indian viewers can watch the US Open 2025 semi-final clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic on the Star Sports network and streamed via JioHotstar.

UK fans can watch on Sky Sports Tennis, the Sky Sports+ app, or stream with a NOW TV Sports Pass. In the USA, coverage will be on ESPN platforms—ESPN2, ESPNEWS, and ESPN+ across all rounds.

For full worldwide broadcast details, click here

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