Francisco Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz is on a 15-match win streak in Indian Wells.

Carlos Alcaraz is on cruise control at the Indian Wells Open 2025, even as he moved closer to a three-peat with a 6-1, 6-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov. Alcaraz gets to square off against Franciso Cerundolo after the positive outcome against Dimitrov. It was one of the more lopsided wins secured by Alcaraz since his victory over Roberto Bautista Agut (6-2, 6-0) in 2022. The World No. 3 enjoys a 15-match win streak at the venue, where he is the two-time defending champion.

The 21-year-old Carlos Alcaraz dropped just two games on a windy Californian day as he dominated the proceedings from start to finish against Dimitrov, the 14th seed. It was not to be Dimitrov’s day as he made 28 unforced errors besides not converting any of the three break point opportunities he carved out while gifting five games to his rival on break points. Alcaraz swept away the Bulgarian in just 74 minutes for his third straight-set victory in the tournament.

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Argentine Francisco Cerundolo earned a surprise win over World No. 10 Alex de Minaur. The 7-5, 6-3 win in the round of 16 at Indian Wells was payback for the third-round loss to the Aussie in Melbourne, and it could not have come at a better time for Cerundolo. The 26-year-old Cerundolo progressed to his first quarter-final at Indian Wells, adding to his previous four quarter-final appearances at other Masters events.

Match Details

• Tournament: Indian Wells Open 2025 Men’s Singles
• Round: Quarter-finals
• Date: March 14
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, United States
• Surface: Hard

Preview

The upcoming clash between Francisco Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz will be their third overall and second at the ATP level. Their earliest meeting was at the Challenger level in 2019, with Alcaraz having to wait until 2024 to even the score. 

Cerundolo, who reached the final in Buenos Aires last month, is now 6-1 in his previous seven matches against Top 10 players at the ATP Masters 1000s after his victory over Alex de Minaur. His Spanish rival is yet to be tested, having not dropped a set in the first three rounds. Cerundolo lost a set in his opening round against American wildcard Mackenzie McDonald. 

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

The Argentine’s win over an out-of-sorts Alex de Minaur earned Cerundolo a face-off against Alcaraz for the first time in a major event. Their previous and only meeting at a tour-level event was at Queen’s Club – and ATP 500 event. 

On Friday, Cerundolo and Alcaraz face off in the last eight, with the Spaniard now a step closer to a first Indian Wells three-peat since Novak Djokovic in 2016. 

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-L-W
• Francisco Cerundolo: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 2
• Carlos Alcaraz: 1
• Francisco Cerundolo: 1

Also Read: Indian Wells Open: Full list of winners

Stats

Francisco Cerundolo:

• Cerundolo has a 13-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Cerundolo has a 5-2 win-loss in Indian Wells.
• Cerundolo has won 47% of matches played on hard courts.

Carlos Alcaraz:

• Alcaraz has a 14-2 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Alcaraz has a 19-2 record in Indian Wells.
• Alcaraz has won 75% of the matches played on hard courts.

Also Read: Top 10 players to watch at Indian Wells Open 2025

Francisco Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Cerundolo +900, Alcaraz -1000.
• Spread: Cerundolo +5.5 (-110), Alcaraz -5.5 (-114). 
• Total games: Over 19.5 (-110), Under 19.5 (-114).

Match Prediction

Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion of the Indian Wells Masters, has been clinical so far this fortnight. Anything less than a third consecutive title for the World No. 3 would be a surprise to many. 

Francisco Cerundolo has had a reliable season so far, having booked a fourth consecutive quarter-final and first on hard courts this year. 

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

The Argentine converted six of seven breakpoints and struck 22 winners in his straight-set win over an off-colour De Minaur. But Cerundolo cannot afford the 39 unforced errors he made in the fourth round against a player of Alcaraz’s calibre.

Alcaraz can expect some resistance from Cerundolo, but in the end, it will be the Spaniard’s game for the taking.

Prediction:  Alcaraz will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of the quarter-final match between Francisco Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz at the 2025 Indian Wells Open?

The Sony Network and SonyLiv will beam the 2025 Indian Wells quarterfinal between Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz in the Indian subcontinent. Residents in the United Kingdom and the United States can tune in to Sky UK and Tennis Channel, respectively.

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