Jannik Sinner's projected path to Australian Open 2025 final

Jannik Sinner is all set to defend his title at Australian Open 2025.

A season like the one Jannik Sinner enjoyed in 2024 can be hard to replicate, but that won’t stop the Italian from trying. The 23-year-old has calmly navigated the crowded 2024 tennis calendar even as controversy found him in the form of a doping charge. While he awaits the outcome of the appeal at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), he has gone about quietly conquering all that lay before him. 

Since winning the Australian Open in his Grand Slam debut last season, he took seven more ATP-level titles to finish the season. This includes the US Open title and the year-ending ATP Finals, which he won undefeated. His victories included six Kings Slam exhibition matches and helping Italy retain the Davis Cup.

Also Read: Novak Djokovic’s projected path to Australian Open 2025 final

A year after becoming the first Italian to win the Australian Open, he returns as the favourite to retain the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. In the face of a tricky draw, can the ‘The Fox’ begin the 2025 season on a strong note? He has a long road ahead of him in 2025 that will test him at every turn, starting with his opening match in Melbourne. 

On that note, let’s take a look at Jannik Sinner’s projected path to glory.

Round 1 – Nicolas Jarry

The Sinner vs. Jerry first-round matchup will be an interesting affair. Jerry to test world No. 1 in baseline duel in Melbourne. Expect Sinner and Jerry to engage in a tug of war for a better position on the court. It will be their first meeting at a Grand Slam event since they first played each other five years ago.

The two players are tied at 1-1 in their head-to-head, with Sinner winning their recent meeting in Beijing last year to even the score. Jarry won their first tour-level meeting in ‘s-Hertogenbosch in 2019. 

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to Australian Open 2025 final

Round 2 – Taro Daniel / Tristan Schoolkate (WC)

Sinner can expect a breather in the second round, where he will take on either unseeded Taro Daniel or Australian wildcard Tristan Schoolkate. The Italian first played Daniel in the third round of the 2022 Australian Open, followed by a second-round meeting at the 2024 ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai. The World No. 1 claimed both wins against the Japanese player to go up 2-0 in their head-to-head.

The other potential second-round rival is Schoolkate. The Aussie is playing in his second Grand Slam draw after the 2024 US Open and his first on home turf. It will be the first tour-level meeting between Jannik Sinner and Tristan Schoolkate.

Round 3 – Flavio Cobolli / Tomas Martin Etcheverry

The third round could see Sinner take on either Flavio Cobolli or Tomas Martin Etcheverry for a chance to progress into the last 16. While Sinner has won both his matches against Etcheverry, he is yet to face compatriot Cobolli on the ATP tour. 

Though Sinner came out on top when he took on Etcheverry in Melbourne in 2023 by winning in straight sets, the Argentine took a set off the World No. 1 in Shanghai last season when they played in the third round. 

While 22-year-old Cobolli is yet to enjoy the same level of success as Sinner, he reached his maiden tour-level final at the ATP 500 event in Washington in the 2024 season.

Round 4 – Holger Rune / Matteo Berrettini

The plucky Dane, Holger Rune, is tied 2-2 with Sinner in their head to head. The Scandinavian player is a tough competitor and stretched the Italian in their more recent meetings at the 2023 ATP Finals and the 2024 ATP Masters 1000 in  Monte Carlo. Despite Rune’s lack of success in Melbourne, it would be unwise to rule out the 21-year-old Dane causing an upset.

Sinner was tested by fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini in the second round at Wimbledon last season. It took four sets and three tiebreaks before the World No. 1 prevailed against Berrettini. Sinner can expect more of the same if the two cross paths in Melbourne, as Berrettini is unlikely to go down without a fight.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in men’s singles at Australian Open 2025

Quarter-final – Francisco Cerundolo/Stefanos Tsitsipas 

Jannik Sinner’s real test could begin in the quarter-finals. He will be wary of both of his potential last eight rivals – Francisco Cerundolo/Stefanos Tsitsipas. While he is tied with Cerundolo at 2-2, Sinner trailers Tsitsipas at 3-6 in their head-to-head. 

Cerundolo overcame Sinner at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome in 2023 in the fourth round, also their most recent meeting. The Argentine rallied for a three-set win, coming from a set down to take the match, losing only four games in the second and third sets.

Tsitsipas overcame the Italian in their only face-off in 2024 at the ATP Masters 1000  in Monte-Carlo en route to the Greek lifting the trophy. Tsitsipas beat Sinner four times in a row between 2021 and 2023, including twice in the Australian Open. The Italian will be wary at the thought of facing the former top-ten player on the hard courts at Melbourne Park.

Semi-final – Taylor Fritz / Daniil Medvedev

Should Sinner advance to the last four, he will come across two players with a score to settle. Fritz suffered three straight losses at the hands of the Italian, most recently in the round-robin stage of the ATP Finals and the title round. The loss that hurt Fritz the most was losing to Sinner in the US Open final in front of his home crowd. 

The other possible opponent is Daniil Medvedev. The Russian, a three-time Australian Open finalist, trails 8-7 in his head-to-head against Sinner. Medvedev has what it takes to overpower the World No. 1, having defeated him the first six times they played. Medvedev also snapped a five-match losing streak against Sinner in a marathon five-setter in the 2024 Wimbledon quarter-finals.  

Final – Alexander Zverev/Carlos Alcaraz/Novak Djokovic

Jannik Sinner will have to put in extra effort if he wants to win the title round and retain the Australian Open trophy for another year. All the other three possible potential finalists are familiar faces to the Italian. Further, the trio boasts of strong performances against him.

Not only does Zverev have a 4-2 lead in their head-to-head, but the German owns a 3-1 lead against Sinner on hard courts. Two of those wins have come at the US Open fourth round in 2021 and 2023. 

Carlos Alcaraz has dominated Sinner in 2024, claiming all three wins against the World No. 1. What will worry Sinner is that two of the losses came on hard courts, his favourite surface at Indian Wells, and most recently in a nail-biting three-set affair at Beijing.   

Not to be forgotten is ten-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic. The Serb is a danger when wounded, as the competition found out in 2019. A year after his fourth-round loss to unseeded Korean Hyeon Chung, he stormed back to take the title the next year with a straight-set win over Rafael Nadal in the finals. 

Not to be forgotten, Djokovic set the ball rolling with three consecutive wins over Sinner at the beginning of their rivalry. Despite not having the best year, Djokovic reached two finals and completed his long-cherished dream of winning an Olympic gold.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram