Explained: India qualification scenario for ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2024 semi-finals after win vs SL

We will discuss the semi-final qualification scenario of Team India at the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2024.

The ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2024 is in the last phase of the group stage round with only six games left in this stage after the India vs Sri Lanka encounter on October 9.

After match No. 12 of the competition, four teams have played three games each and the remaining six teams have played two games each.

Every game and the margin of its result could have significant repercussions on the eventual standings.

India have stormed back into this competition with an 82-run victory over Sri Lanka on Wednesday night in Dubai, after having lost to New Zealand by a huge margin (58 runs) and escaped against Pakistan by a whisker (7 balls remaining).

In Dubai, India registered their biggest win in terms of runs at the T20 World Cup and that propelled their Net Run Rate (NRR) from -1.217 to +0.576. They went from No. 4 in the Group A points table to No. 2, sitting just behind Australia but now have their toughest challenge ahead: defending champions Australia.

In Group A of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2024, Australia have four points in two games, India have four points in three games, Pakistan and New Zealand have two points in two games each, and Sri Lanka have lost all their three matches.

How can India reach the semi-finals of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2024?

If India want to reach the semi-finals without much fuss, they will have to beat Australia and hope both New Zealand and Pakistan lose at least one of their two remaining matches.

However, this solution is not as straightforward as Australia, the winners of the last three ICC Women’s T20 World Cup, are the strongest side in the world and, well, could be unbeatable most of the times in ICC tournaments.

Further, even if India beat Australia and if New Zealand win both their games, then it would be a three-way tie, and it will come down to NRR. New Zealand are not too far behind India on NRR. Let’s say, India beat Australia by a margin of one run, then New Zealand would need to win their two matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan by a combined margin of approximately 38 runs to go past India’s NRR.

Let’s see the scenario where India could reach the semi-finals even after losing to Australia.

If India lose to Australia, they would need Pakistan and New Zealand both to lose at least one of their remaining two matches and then it would come down to NRR with multiple teams on four points. During the game against Australia, if India sense that they are certain to end on the losing side, then they should wisely look to lower the margin of defeat and play for NRR and hope that other results go their way.

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