Can Carlos Alcaraz dethrone Jannik Sinner from ATP World No #1 ranking before French Open?

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Carlos Alcaraz leads Sinner in the ATP Race to Turin rankings following his Monte Carlo victory.
Jannik Sinner reached an agreement with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) and accepted a three-month ban on February 15 for his failed drug tests in the 2024 season. With the Italian’s absence confirmed until the Italian Open in May, Carlos Alcaraz – No. #2 and Alexander Zverev – No. #3 in the ATP Rankings had a chance to take over the World No. #1 position.
Instead, a series of less-than-satisfactory results have complicated the goal of becoming World No. #1 for both players. With Zverev unable to make it past the quarter-finals since his title-round appearance at the 2025 Australian Open, he has all but been ruled out of becoming World No. #1 any time before the French Open.
Alcaraz has kept his hopes alive with wins at Rotterdam and Monte Carlo since Sinner began serving his period of ineligibility. The No. #1 position in the ATP Rankings still remains a mathematical possibility for Alcaraz after the Spaniard took over from Sinner in the Race to Turin following his maiden Monte Carlo title. The 21-year-old Alcaraz has 2410 points in the countdown to Turin while Sinner is on 2000 points.
Strong performances from Alcaraz this season have primed the Spaniard for the showdown with Sinner in the race to be No. #1.
In the ATP rankings, Alcaraz is currently on 7720 points and has swapped places with Alexander Zverev for the No. #2 position. The two-time Barcelona Open champion will have a chance to narrow the gap with Sinner if he manages to make another title run at the venue.
Winning the ATP 500 event narrows the gap to 1510 points. Not playing last season works in Alcaraz’s favour ahead of the Madrid and Rome ATP 1000s and gives the six-time Masters winner a significant opportunity to trim the gap further.
Also Read: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz: Who has won most big titles?
Jannik Sinner will remain on top with 9930 points after the ongoing Barcelona Open but will lose 200 points after the Madrid Masters. The Italian was a quarter-finalist in Madrid in 2024. Like Sinner, Alcaraz will have to defend 200 points in the Spanish capital in May.
Alcaraz will be looking to capture his third Madrid Open crown, having won the title in 2022 and 2023 and make the most of Sinner’s absence before the World No. #1 returns to action in Rome. As it stands, Alcaraz must win in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome while banking on Sinner losing early in the Italian capital.
Carlos Alcaraz will hope to carry over the momentum when he takes on Serbian qualifier Laslo Djere in the second round in Barcelona. The top seed took down American Ethan Quinn in the opening round in straight sets, 6-2, 7-6(5) to make a promising start to his campaign.
The 21-year-old could run into Alex de Minaur or Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the final, where he is seeded to clash with defending champion and second seed Casper Ruud.
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