Iga Swiatek's projected path to Wimbledon 2025 final

World No. 8 Iga Swiatek faces a tricky road to a maiden SW19 final.

Iga Swiatek‘s wait for a title continues after her defeat in the final of Bad Homburg 2025, at the hands of top seed Jessica Pegula. While the Pole registered notable wins over Wimbledon semi-finalist Jasmine Paolini and Ekaterina Alexandrova during her campaign, she failed to win the title.

Swiatek will enter Wimbledon 2025 as an underdog, facing a tough path to glory due to her low ranking. However, unlike clay tournaments, she will have nothing to lose at the Championship, and fans would hope she can play freely and produce her best result on grass.

Let’s take a closer look at Swiatek’s likely opponents leading up to the title round. 

Round 1 – Polina Kudermetova

Iga Swiatek kicks off her Wimbledon 2025 campaign against Polina Kudermetova, a player she is favored to beat despite Kudermetova’s occasional flashes of form. Swiatek’s superior consistency and Grand Slam pedigree give her a clear edge, and she has handled early-round pressure well at majors throughout her career.

Round 2 – Caty McNally or Jodie Burrage

In the second round, Swiatek will face either American Caty McNally or Britain’s Jodie Burrage, both of whom lack significant experience against top-5 opposition at Grand Slams. Swiatek has not dropped a set to either player in their limited previous meetings, and this is expected to be another easy outing for the 24-year-old.

Round 3 – Marta Kostyuk or Danielle Collins

The first test for Swiatek will be in the third round against two of the hard hitters on the WTA tour. While Swiatek holds a favorable head-to-head against both, her rivalry with Danielle Collins is a famous one, and the American had beaten her recently in Rome. Kostyuk would be a preferred rival for the eighth seed, as she holds a flawless record of 3-0 against the Ukrainian.

Round 4 – Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion, poses Swiatek’s first significant hurdle. Their H2H is closely split (5-4 in favor of the Pole), with Rybakina winning their sole grass meeting (2023 Wimbledon QF).

Rybakina is arguably the best player on this surface amongst the current WTA pool, and her power-serving game thrives on this surface. Swiatek will look to showcase her net game and defensive resilience to neutralise this match. Expect a tightly contested match, but the Kazakh might prevail in this battle.

Quarter-final – Coco Gauff / Liudmila Samsonova / Daria Kasatkina

Swiatek leads head-to-head against Coco Gauff 11–4, but the stats are misleading. The American is on a roll against Swiatek, overcoming a slow start against the former World No. 1. After winning only 1 out of their initial 12 exchanges, the American completed a hat-trick of victories over Swiatek, with the latest one coming in Madrid.

These two are yet to clash on grass, and the World No. 2 will be tested for the first time in the Championship, in the quarters, having had to contend with a fairly easy draw until then.

Despite good form, Gauff’s record on grass isn’t inspiring, and an early exit cannot be ruled out. Liudmila Samsonova is an improved grass player with a strong showing in Berlin, reaching the semi-finals. Another potential yet unlikely contender is Daria Kasatkina, who has lost her first round of both the grass events she has competed in so far.

Semi-final – Jessica Pegula / Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva started the season on a high, but has gone off the boil since Roland Garros 2025. The Russian has struggled to control her temper when things have gone against her, and is unlikely to reach the semi-finals. If she gets this far, she could certainly prove to be a tough opponent, given her superior record against top-ranked players.

Jessica Pegula boosted her title chances with her impressive triumph at Bad Homburg 2025, where she defeated Iga Swiatek, Linda Noskova, and Emma Navarro en route to the trophy. The American achieved her best Wimbledon result in 2023, reaching the quarter-finals.

With Swiatek still carrying the sting of that recent loss, their potential rematch promises to be a tough and intense battle.

Final – Aryna Sabalenka / Marketa Vondrousova

Swiatek’s hopes of becoming the first female to clinch the French Open title for the fourth time in a row were crushed by Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-final.

The Pole will be looking to avenge this defeat and gain a psychological advantage, as the Belarusian has lost both major finals this year. The Pole leads this rivalry 8-5, but the World No. 1 prevailed in their previous two duels.

After winning Wimbledon in 2023, Marketa Vondrousova clinched her first title since then, at Berlin 2025. As an unseeded opponent, she won’t have an easy route, but she is certainly one of the most feared opponents in the women’s singles draw.

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