Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Cincinnati Open 2025

Alcaraz is eyeing a maiden title in Cincinnati while Sinner will be defending his.

In a repeat of Wimbledon and French Open finals, Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz will decide the men’s singles title at Cincinnati Open 2025. This is their fourth Championship clash for this season, elevating the rivalry to the level of all-time great rivalries like Federer-Nadal and Nadal-Djokovic in the modern era.

World No. 1 & 2 in ATP rankings, both Sinner and Alcaraz have crossed a few personal milestones at Cincinnati en route to the title round.

Alcaraz claimed his 25th career ATP top-five win by defeating an off-colour Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-3 to even their head-to-head score at 6-6. The German was visibly struggling with the heat and sought a medical timeout at 2-1 in the second set.

The Spaniard has reached his third consecutive final at ATP Masters 1000 events, and at 22 years and 94 days, he is the youngest player to achieve this feat since Novak Djokovic in 2009.

Sinner, 24, booked his second straight final appearance at Cincinnati, having won the title for the first time in 2024. He is the first player since Roger Federer in 2014 and 2015 to reach consecutive finals here.

1 – Jannik Sinner is the first player to reach back-to-back Men’s Singles finals at the Cincinnati Open since Roger Federer (2014-15). Clinical. #CincyTennis | @CincyTennis @atptour @ATPMediaInfo pic.twitter.com/KmwIKh4LUT

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) August 16, 2025

The Italian celebrated his 24th birthday by ending the dream run of French qualifier Terence Atmane—7-6(4), 6-2 in an hour and 26 minutes. The World No. 1 had another reason to celebrate as his win over Atmane turned out to be Sinner’s 200th hard-court win.

Atmane tested Sinner on court in their semi-final match, taking the Italian to his third tie-break of the tournament. The unseeded Frenchman greeted Sinner with a spirited challenge, serving nine aces to six by his Italian rival. The difference between the number of winners was marginal, too – 21 by Sinner to 16 by Atmane.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz: Who has won most big titles?

Match details

• Tournament: Cincinnati Open 2025
• Round: Finals
• Date: August 19
• Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Centre, Cincinnati, United States
• Surface: Hard Court

Preview

Alcaraz will look to eat into Sinner’s lead in the ATP Rankings by unseating the defending champion. The Spaniard trails by 2250 points, while enjoying a 1540-point lead in the Live Race to Turin.

Should Alcaraz steal the crown from Sinner, he will become the first Spanish player to win the Cincinnati Open title since Rafael Nadal in 2013.

Sinner will have a different target in mind—that of becoming the first player to successfully defend his title at the venue since Federer in 2015. Despite his Wimbledon victory over Alcaraz in July, Sinner trails 5-8 in their head-to-head.

It is also Alcaraz who leads their head-to-head on hard courts with a 5-2 advantage. The last time the 24-year-old scored a win over Alcaraz on hard courts was in Beijing in 2023. Also, in Alcaraz’s favour is the 4-1 advantage over Sinner at ATP Masters events.

Form

• Jannik Sinner: W-W-W-W-W
• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 13
• Jannik Sinner: 5
• Carlos Alcaraz: 8

Full head-to-head details here

Stats

Jannik Sinner

• Sinner has a 43-15 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sinner has a 12-3 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Sinner has won 80% of matches played on hard courts

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a 53-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Alcaraz has an 11-4 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Alcaraz has won 75% of matches played on hard courts

ALSO READ: Cincinnati Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sinner -175, Alcaraz +150
• Spread: Sinner +2.5 (-118), Alcaraz -2.5 (-109)
• Total Games: Over 22.5 (-124), Under 23.5 (-129).
• 1st Set Winner: Sinner -160, Alcaraz +128
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-177), Under 10.5 (-275)

Match prediction

Alcaraz will be looking for payback in Ohio after Sinner snapped the Spaniard’s 5-0-win streak in Grand Slam finals. The Italian defeated Alcaraz at SW19, with a four-set win over the Spaniard in July. Alcaraz will look to return the favour and unseat Sinner when they clash on Monday night in Cincinnati, for their 15th career meeting.

The rivalry between the two never disappoints, as fans will gear up for yet another installment of the Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner rivalry. The upcoming title round clash is their first on a hard court.

Sinner has not been his best at the tournament, and he will be required to step up when he takes on Alcaraz in the finals. The fast court conditions at the newly revamped courts of Cincinnati will favour the Italian, who will look to control the narrative from the baseline, as is his forte.

Carlos has a clear advantage with his court coverage and shot variety. The Spaniard should keep the ball in play and force Sinner to approach the net rather than trade shots at the baseline, where the Italian has an advantage. Alcaraz always has his deceptive drop shots to fall back on to get out of a tight spot.

Both layers boast a high first-serve percentage, which will be a significant factor ahead of their summit clash. Here, Alcaraz has the edge – 65% to 60% from Sinner.

Result: Carlos Alcaraz to win in five sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz final match at Cincinnati Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the 2025 Cincinnati Open final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner on the Sony TEN Network and its streaming service, SonyLIV. Sky UK will handle the coverage within the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel takes over in the United States.

Full worldwide broadcast details here

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