Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Paris Masters 2024 final

Carlos Alcaraz will look to join David Ferrer as the only Spaniards to win the Paris Masters title.

Carlos Alcaraz arrives in Paris as the World No. #2 for the second consecutive year. Alcaraz was No. #1 in 2022 and No. #35 when he made his debut in ATP Paris Masters. The Spaniard will now be the top seed after Jannik Sinner pulled out of Paris Masters 2024.

Lucky Loser and Frenchman Arthur Cazaux will be taking Sinner’s spot in the main draw. Cazauz will face either Ben Shelton or another Frenchman, Corentin Moutet, in the second round after receiving a first-round bye.

The Spaniard will arrive in Paris with a successful season behind him. Alcaraz has won two majors (Roland Garros and Wimbledon), the ATP 1000 at Indian Wells and an ATP 500 in Beijing. For Alcaraz, the ATP Paris Masters 2024 represents an opportunity to win another title besides earning another 1000 ATP Points before the ATP Finals gets underway in November.

Alcaraz will likely not have to exert himself to get past the first quarter-final stage as he leads all potential contestants in their head-to-head until then. The four-time Grand Slam titlist will begin his campaign against Nicolas Jarry. Alcaraz, the second seed, could meet Ugo Humbert, the 15th seed in the third round or seventh-seed Casper Ruud in the last eight. 

A fifth ATP 1000 clash against Dimitrov awaits Alcaraz in the last four stage. Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are potential rivals for the last ATP 1000 trophy of the season in the title round. The stage is set for a smooth Carlos Alcaraz run to the finals with a relatively easy draw.

Also Read: ATP Paris Masters 2024: Updated schedule, results, live streaming details

Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to the final at ATP Masers 2024

Round 2: Nicolas Jarry

Alcaraz will play against Nicolas Jarry in the opening round. The Spaniard leads 2-1 against the 29-year-old Jarry, winning the first two matches in Rio de Janeiro and Wimbledon in 2023. Alcaraz, however, faltered against the Chilean in the semi-final of the Argentina Open in straight sets.

Jarry will be hoping to carry that form over from Buenos Aires when the duo clash at the Rolex Paris Masters. It will be their first meeting at an ATP 1000 event and the second this year, giving the Chilean a chance to even the score.

Round 3: Ugo Humbert/Brandon Nakashima

Alcaraz will head into any meeting with possible third-around opponents Ugo Humber and Brandon Nakashima with a leg-up.

Alcaraz is 2-0 against Humbert, with both wins coming this season in the fourth round at Wimbledon and the Round Robin stage of the 2024 Davis Cup. The Spaniard owns a 2-0 record against Nakashima, the wins coming in Oeiras, Portugal in the Challenger Tour and the Next Gen ATP Finals, both in 2021.

Humbert has won two titles this season, including the Dubai Tennis Championships for the second ATP 500 title of his career after winning the Terra Wortmann Open in 2021.

Nakashima accounted for Andrey Rublev in Barcelona before going on to defeat Sebastian Baez in Wimbledon and Tommy Paul in Canada. He went on to claim wins over Taylor Fritz in Cincinnati and against Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti in New York – each of them an ATP top 20 player.

Quarter-final: Casper Ruud/Tommy Paul

Quarter-final round clashes involving Alcaraz against Casper Ruud (4-0) and Tommy Paul (4-2) are likely to unfold at the Paris Masters.

Carlos Alcaraz has an unblemished 4-0 record against Casper Ruud. Two of the four wins came in 2022 at ATP Masters Miami and the US Open and was the title round at both events. Their rivalry began at the ATP 250 event in Marbella, while their recent face-off was at the ATP 500 China Open.

Alcaraz and Paul have clashed at four ATP 1000 events, with the score evenly split at 2-2. The Spaniard has the edge over Paul in 2024, having won both their matches this season at Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics for a 2-0 lead.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz aiming to end Spain’s 12-year drought in ATP Paris Masters

Semi-final: Daniil Medvedev/Grigor Dimitrov

A potential semi-final clash with Medvedev or Dimitrov could be the first real test faced by Alcaraz at the Paris Masters 2024. Alcaraz maintains a 6-2 record against Medvedev, the only two losses coming at Wimbledon (2021) and the US Open (2023). The Spaniard stitched together three consecutive wins against Medvedev in 2024 – Indian Wells, Wimbledon and Beijing to extend a winless season for the Russian. 

The gritty Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov handed Alcaraz two straight defeats at the ATP Masters in Shanghai and Miami. The Spaniard won their first two matches at ATP 1000 events in Paris and Madrid. Having never met in a last four in their head-to-head, the Alcaraz-Dimtrov pair are seeded to clash in the semi-final stage of the Paris Masters.

Finals: Andrey Rublev/Alexander Zverev

Alcaraz and Rublev have won a match each and are level at 1-1 in their head-to-head. The duo could run into each other six months after they played in the quarterfinals of the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid, which Rublev won. The meeting at Madrid was the second of their career. Alcaraz claimed victory in their first meeting at the ATP Finals in 2023.

A title round bout against Alexander Zverev will be tricky to navigate for Alcaraz. The Spaniard and the German are tied at 5-5, with the previous two matches going the Alcaraz way. Alcaraz leads 2-1 in 2024, but Zverev has an edge with Alcaraz having to work for his wins at matches that go beyond straight-set affairs.

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