Paris Olympics 2024: Novak Djokovic's projected path to Gold Medal

Novak Djokovic aims to win his maiden gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Novak Djokovic will grace the most prestigious event in the world for probably one last time, seeking the only exclusive silverware missing from his otherwise illustrious accolade cabinet—an Olympic gold. In 2024, Paris will mark his fifth appearance at the Games.

In Beijing 2008, Djokovic lost to eventual gold medalist Rafael Nadal in the semifinals before defeating American sensation James Blake to clinch the bronze medal, which remains his only victory in a medal match in his overall Olympic career.

In the 2012 London Games, he again lost in the semis to Andy Murray and went on to lose the bronze medal match to Juan Martín del Potro. The Serbian aimed to complete a career slam by winning gold at the 2016 Rio Games but surprisingly lost in the first round, marking his first defeat in the opening round of a tournament since 2009.

The 2020 Tokyo Olympics turned out to be another disappointing outing for Djokovic, as he lost to Spain’s Pablo Carreño Busta in the bronze medal match. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has not had a year anywhere close to the high standards he’s set for himself and will be aiming for a podium finish in Paris.

However, as per the draws announced by the International Tennis Federation (ITF), the Serbian’s path to glory will be anything but easy. Unlike the 2024 Wimbledon, where the 37-year-old didn’t face a single top-10 player until the final, the Serb will encounter a much more formidable lineup in the Games.

On that note, let’s take a look at Novak Djokovic’s possible route to the gold medal clash:

Round 1: Matthew Ebden

The top seed will commence his campaign against doubles specialist Matthew Ebden, who was a last-minute addition to the singles draw following Andy Murray‘s withdrawal. Ebden, who achieved his highest singles ranking of 38 in 2018, has since then focused primarily on doubles.

Given Ebden’s limited recent experience and preparation in singles, the 24-time Grand Slam champion is expected to record a comfortable victory over the Australian.

Round 2: Rafael Nadal or Marton Fucsovics

A stunning clash awaits in the second round as two all-time greats meet again, probably for one last time if Rafael Nadal stays fit. Over the years, it has always been a close and intense rivalry, with Djokovic leading the head-to-head, 30-29. However, doubts are hovering over the Spaniard’s participation and fans across the globe will hope he’s fit in time to witness this blockbuster match.

Rafael Nadal, who skipped Wimbledon and later competed in the Bastad Open, displayed promising form by defeating notable players such as Cameron Norrie and Argentina’s Mariano Navone before losing in the finals. Despite admitting that he was nowhere near his best after the match, Nadal is known for his resilience.

When he faces Djokovic on his favorite court, one can expect him to give it his all, as he has always done in their storied rivalry. However, considering their current form and recent performances, it’s difficult to see Nadal getting the better of the 24-time Grand Slam champion. Nevertheless, if Nadal fails to make it, Marton Fucsovics will have a chance to face Djokovic.

Round 3: Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils recently beat Tokyo 2020 Gold medalist Alexander Zverev in the German Open and should defeat his potential second-round opponent Matteo Alrandi, despite having a 0-3 record against him. Against the German, the Frenchman displayed remarkable tenacity and composure, setting high expectations for a similar performance at the 2024 Games.

Playing on home soil, Fils will certainly have the crowd rooting for him in what promises to be a spectacle against the Serbian in the third round. The youngster will certainly make Djokovic work hard but a spot in the quarter-final looks certain for the 37-year-old at this point.

Quarter-Finals: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Two animated and enthusiastic athletes could take on each other in the quarter-finals of the 2024 Olympics. Despite a poor Wimbledon run, Stefanos Tsitsipas‘ excellent clay record makes him a top contender.

Djokovic boasts an impressive head-to-head record of 11-2 against the Greek, with the Serbian winning the last ten encounters, including a dramatic comeback from two sets down at the French Open. While Tsitsipas can certainly beat anyone on his day, Djokovic is expected to navigate his way to a fourth Olympic semifinal appearance.

Semi-Finals: Alexander Zverev or Lorenzo Musetti

A potential rematch of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics semifinals or the 2024 Wimbledon semifinals is on the cards, with Djokovic carrying painful memories from his previous Olympic semifinal clashes. Uncharacteristically, the Serbian has lost all three of his Olympic semifinals, and he will be determined to break this streak in Paris as he seeks Olympic glory.

Alexander Zverev, the defending champion, will be the favorite in his contest against Lorenzo Musetti, having won the Italian Open last year and reached the finals of both the 2024 French Open and German Open. However, the Italian cannot be ruled out, given his impressive performance at the recently concluded Wimbledon.

Finals: Carlos Alcaraz

Probably for the first time in eight years, Djokovic enters a tennis tournament without the “favorite” tag. This is solely due to his comprehensive defeat at the hands of Carlos Alcaraz. The reigning French Open Champion and Wimbledon winner will eye for an Olympic gold in his debut Games. Doing so will see him featured in a unique list of history-makers.

However, the last time Djokovic lost to the Spaniard in a Wimbledon final, the Serbian came storming back as he did in the 2023 Cincinnati Open. “I haven’t yet won a title in this calendar year so people tend to count me out, but it has happened before and it can always change. So it can be a motivator”, said Djokovic who certainly knows how to prove his critics wrong.

The 37-year-old though will be vary of the steep challenge that awaits him, especially given his track record in best-of-three games. With little breaks and the possibility of playing matches without any rest days in between, the fitness levels will be put to the test as the Serbian looks to complete his Olympic career in style.

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