Jannik Sinner's projected path to ATP China Open 2024 final

Jannik Sinner returns to China Open 2024 as World No. 1 and defending champion.

The tennis action shifts to Asia with ATP 500 events in Beijing and Tokyo taking place at virtually the same time. Both begin in the third week of September and wind up in early October. The China Open 2024 could await its 13th distinct champion in its 20th year of existence. 

Jannik Sinner captured the title last season while beating Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the final. The Italian won his second major crown at the US Open earlier this month and is bidding to mount a successful title defence in Beijing. Novak Djokovic, with six titles, leads with most wins at the ATP 500 event. He has not featured at the event since 2015.

Djokovic’s absence will see the top four players from the top 10 rankings competing at the China Open 2024. Sinner could become the third player after Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to win multiple titles at the event.

The World No. 1 will have to contend with fellow top five players Carlos Alcaraz and Medvedev. Alcaraz and Medvedev have never won the event and will be looking to dethrone the Italian in their pursuit of the title. Let’s now take a look at Jannik Sinner’s projected path to the final:

First Round: Nicolas Jarry

Nicolas Jarry and Jannik Sinner last met on tour in 2019, with the Italian yet to win a title. Jarry overcame Sinner at ‘s-Hertogenbosch when the latter was No. 219 and Jarry was No. 60 heading into the clash. It was a straight sets win for Jarry over the future World No. 1. 

Sinner has since gone on to win 16 titles, including two Grand Slams, outnumbering the Chilean’s three tour-level titles. Jarry has won against three top 10 players this season (Alcaraz, Ruud and Tsitsipas) and will take comfort from the fact that he has defeated Sinner before.

Second Round: Jan-Lennard Struff / Stan Wawrinka

Against potential second round opponent Jan-Lennard Struff, the Italian top seed has a 3-0 head-to-head lead. All three meetings between Sinner and Struff took place in 2024 –  two at ATP Masters events at Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo. The third was in Halle and the only time Struff stretched the Italian to three sets. 

The rivalry between Wawrinka and Sinner began at the 2019 US Open. The Swiss took the early lead against Sinner, winning the first two matches in New York and Antwerp to go up 2-0. By 2022, the Italian had shaken the rookie tag with six titles under his belt, finishing the year ranked in the top 15.  All four subsequent clashes were won by Sinner, including thrice in 2023 to go up 4-2 in their head-to-head.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to China Open 2024 final

Quarter-finals: Grigor Dimitrov / Jiri Lehecka

Sinner holds the lead against both potential quarter-finalists – 4-1 against Dimitrov and 2-0 against Lehecka. 

Dimitrov prevailed over Sinner at the Rome Masters in 2020, taking the win in three sets. By their next meeting in Miami, Sinner had the measure of the Bulgarian, going on to win their second round match and the next three to dominate Dimitrov in their head-to-head. 

The Bulgarian, who won the 2017 ATP Finals, loves a good fight and can be counted on to give Sinner a run for his money if they cross paths.

The rivalry between Sinner and Lehecka got underway on the Challenger Tour, carrying over to the ATP Tour when they met at the 2024 Indian Wells Masters. Sinner took both wins comfortably in straight sets. 

The Czech, en route to his maiden title, defeated No. 18 Nicolas Jarry at the Adelaide Open quarter-finals in 2024. Lehecka accounted for four other top 20 players in 2024 – Karen Khachanov, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev.

Semi-finals:  Andrey Rublev / Lorenzo Musetti

While Sinner enjoys a 6-3 lead against Rublev, the Russian has ensured the Italian does not get too comfortable by interrupting his winning streak. Rublev defeated Sinner in Vienna (2019), Roland-Garros (2022) and the Canada Masters (2024). Of their three meetings in 2024, Sinner won the other two, including in Melbourne and the more recent Cincinnati Masters. Three of the six wins against Rublev came the hard way, with Sinner being taken to the deciding set before landing the win.

Rublev added to his February win in Hong Kong by taking the 2024 ATP Masters Madrid title, his second of the series after Monte-Carlo the previous year. The Russian overcame Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz in the quarters and semis before denying Felix Auger-Aliassime his maiden ATP 1000 title.

Sinner leads his fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti 2-0 in their head-to-head, both wins coming in straight sets. Musetti’s record against Sinner notwithstanding, he surprised many by making the Wimbledon semi-finals in place of his more illustrious countryman. Musetti also reached the title rounds at Queen’s Club and Umag, besides making his way back to the top 20 after the SW19 fortnight.  

Finals: Carlos Alcaraz / Daniil Medvedev

Sinner will get an opportunity to renew his rivalry with Alcaraz and Medvedev if the challengers make it to the title round. Sinner trails Alcaraz 4-6 in their head-to-head, spilling over from their days on the Challenger circuit. The Italian enjoys greater consistency than Alcaraz, despite both players having equally split the Grand Slams. 

The tussle between the Spaniard and the Italian began at Alicante, with their rivalry now in its sixth year. Alcaraz has won both their meetings in 2024, but lost his way after winning the French Open and Wimbledon titles. The World No. 3 lost to Djokovic in the Olympic gold medal match and crashed out in the second round of the US Open to Botic van de Zandschulp.

Medvedev leads the Italian 7-6 in their head-to-head, but has been on the back foot for all of 2024.  The Russian finds himself staring at the possibility of finishing the season without a title and trails Sinner 3-1 this year. The World No. 1 is enjoying a stellar year with six titles, including two majors and as many ATP 1000 titles. Medvedev made just two finals this season, only to lose both to players younger than him – Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.   

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