Novak Djokovic's projected path to Wimbledon 2025 final

Novak Djokovic faces uphill battle in quest for 25th Grand Slam title.

Novak Djokovic, a seven-time Wimbledon champion, will be seeking a record 25th Grand Slam title that will finally edge him ahead of Margaret Court, who has won 24 majors. The Serb will also hope to win his eighth title at SW19 and in doing so will equal Roger Federer’s haul at the grass-court major.

Time is running out for the Serbian legend, whose latest attempt to win his 25th Grand Slam ended with a semi-final exit at Roland Garros, where he lost to Jannik Sinner. 

Djokovic, currently the World No. 6, recently laboured to his 100th ATP Tour title at the ATP 250 Geneva Open in May to join Roger Federer and Jimmy Connors as the third man with at least 100 career titles. At the Miami Open ATP 1000 event, Djokovic had a chance to register his 100th tour-level win but lost in the title round to Jakub Mensik in straight sets.  

The Serbian former World No. 1 is seeded sixth at Wimbledon this year, his lowest since 2018 when he was seeded twelfth but when to win the tournament that year. He skipped participating in any tune-up event on grass in the run-up to Wimbledon. Djokovic was a finalist at SW19 in 2023 and 2024, losing to Carlos Alcaraz on both occasions in the final.

Let’s take a closer look at Djokovic’s likely opponents leading up to the title round. 

Round 1 – Alexandre Muller

Djokovic will begin his Wimbledon campaign against Frenchman Alexandre Muller as he looks to make history at the All England Club. The Serbian will take on Muller for the first time at the venue. Djokovic handily defeated the Frenchman in their only previous meeting at the 2023 US Open. 

The 28-year-old Muller has never made it past the second round at Wimbledon or any other major. As such, he is unlikely to survive the opening round against Djokovic despite the latter not being at his best. 

Round 2 – Daniel Evans / Jay Clarke

Djokovic will have another chance to familiarise himself with the conditions at SW19 in round two, where he could face either Daniel Evans or Jay Clarke – both unseeded Englishmen and ranked closer to 200. Evans is ranked 170, while Clarke is ranked 199 in the ATP Rankings. 

Evans managed to defeat Djokovic in their only meeting in 2021, in the third round of the Monte Carlo Masters. Clarke is yet to face the Serbian on tour. Neither player has had much success on home turf and is yet to advance to the second week of the grass-court major. 

Round 3 – Alex Michelsen / Miomir Kecmanovic

Djokovic in the third round could potentially face off against American Alex Michelsen or fellow Serbian Miomir Kecmanovic. On paper, it will be another easy outing for the Serbian, irrespective of who his rival in the third round is. 

Michelsen, 20, is making his second appearance at SW19, and his best performance in a Grand Slam is reaching the fourth round at the Australian Open in January. Kecmanovic won at Delray Beach, his first title in five years. Both Michelsen and Kecmanovic are yet to register a win against Djokovic. 

Round 4 – Alex de Minaur / Quentin Halys

Djokovic holds the edge against De Minaur, having beaten the Australian twice at Grand Slams. This includes their clash at Wimbledon last season. Djokovic’s grass-court mastery should see him prevail over the Sydneysider. De Minaur was to face Djokovic in the last eight at Wimbledon in 2024, but the Aussie pulled out of their match due to a hip injury.

If the Serb gets to face Haly, then the odds further increase in the Serb’s favour. The Frenchman trails 0-2 against Djokovic while De Minaur is 1-2 against the Serb. Halys made the third round at SW19 last season and very nearly upset No. 15 seed Holger Rune but lost in five sets after letting off a two-set lead against the Scandinavian. 

Quarter-final – Jack Draper / Alexander Bublik / Jakub Mensik

Djokovic is seeded to take on British No. 1 and the fourth-seed Jack Draper in the last eight. They last crossed paths in the 2021 edition of Wimbledon, with the Serb winning their round face-off. The four-set match saw the Brit claim the opening set against the top seed. 

Winner of the ATP 500 event in Halle, Alexander Bublik, and Djokovic’s Miami Open conqueror, Jakub Mensik, are the other possible match-ups in the quarter-finals of the 2025 Wimbledon fortnight. The Serbian star will bank on his Grand Slam experience to progress to the last four. 

Semi-final – Jannik Sinner / Lorenzo Musetti 

Novak Djokovic is seeded to meet Jannik Sinner for a re-match of their French Open semi-final encounter, this time at SW19. The last time Djokovic defeated Sinner was in the 2023 edition of the year-ending ATP Finals. Since then, the Italian owns a 4-0 record against Djokovic, including at Roland Garros in June. Djokovic’s pursuit of yet another Wimbledon crown hinges on him taming Sinner. 

Both their meetings at the All England Club in  2022 (QF) and 2023 (SF) saw the seven-time Wimbledon champion emerge victorious.  

Djokovic dominated Lorenzo Musetti with an 8-1 lead in their head-to-head, including in Miami this year. The Serb turned in a flawless performance in their fourth-round face-off at the ATP 1000 event to win 6-2, 6-2. Musetti is 18-4 heading into Wimbledon, but has not played on grass before heading to London.

Musetti, who reached the semi-finals in 2024, will look to convert some of his mid-season consistency into a victory against Djokovic should they cross paths in the last four.  

Final – Carlos Alcaraz / Alexander Zverev 

What could work against Djokovic is his loss to the Spaniard in two consecutive Wimbledon finals (2023, 2024). Since Rome, Carlos Alcaraz has won 18 matches in a row and reached five consecutive finals, winning four of them, the sole loss coming to Holger Rune at the Barcelona Open in April.

That said, Djokovic leads Alcaraz, 5-3 in their head-to-head. The significance of that statistic will reveal itself only if they face each other in the title round once again.

Looking to spoil the party will be Germany’s Alexander Zverev, who won in Munich in April and has had near brushes with victory. Since then, he made the finals at yet another home event in Stuttgart and the semi-finals in Halle. 

The two noteworthy performances on grass will perhaps set the tone for a deep run by Zverev at SW19. If he is to win a maiden Grand Slam title, Zverev will have to contend with a 5-9 deficit against the Serb. However, the German’s record at Wimbledon is somewhat lacklustre. Zverev is yet to make it past the fourth round in eight attempts. 

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