How can India still get knocked out of semi-finals race at ICC T20 World Cup 2024 despite 2 wins in Super 8

India have two wins in two games, yet they are not assured of a semi-final berth.

When Group 1 of the Super 8 round in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 was finalized, India and Australia were considered the overwhelming favourites, with the other two teams being Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

After India recorded massive wins over the two Asian teams and Australia defeated Bangladesh, it seemed that the India vs Australia and Afghanistan vs Bangladesh matches on June 24 would be dead rubbers as Australia were expected to beat Afghanistan on June 22.

However, Afghanistan’s historic maiden victory over Australia has thrown Group 1 wide open with now all four teams alive in the semi-finals race and no team certain of their place in the knockouts. There is a chance, though a small one, that even India can still be knocked out of the competition in the Super 8 round.

Talking about the standings in Group 1 after Afghanistan’s unforeseen victory over Australia, Rohit Sharma’s team are at the top of the standings with four points in two games and a game against Australia to go. They have a healthy net run rate of +2.425, but it is still not out of reach of Australia and Afghanistan, both of whom have one win and one loss to their name.

Australia are slotted second with an NRR of +0.223; Afghanistan are third with an NRR of -0.650. At the bottom are Bangladesh, who are all but out of the semi-final race with two losses and an NRR of -2.489.

Can India still be knocked out of the semi-finals race in T20 World Cup 2024?

Yes, if Australia and Afghanistan win their last match in Super 8 with big margins enough to take their NRR ahead of India’s, then the Men In Blue will be knocked out. To go above India’s NRR, Australia will need to defeat Rohit’s team by 41 runs and Afghanistan will need to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs – both results mathematically and practically still possible.

This is the only scenario in which Rohit Sharma’s team don’t qualify for the semi-finals.

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